如何看待位元组跳动同意剥离TIKTOK美国业务，会产生什么影响？

早前在另外一个提问下回答了一些想法：

如何看待红杉等外资拟收购TikTok ? 收购完成后，位元组跳动将无投票权??

www.zhihu.com

那些笃信美国自由市场的人，该醒醒了

请不要再来问我，如果tt不卖被制裁了，谁来养员工。我说简单点吧，抖音国内盘没了，自然有快手或者其他软体赶上，别赚著007的钱，替资本家操心好吗？说得像被卖了，员工就有钱分了。

先跳个预言家，今天跪美国，明天跪印度，日本，大后日欧洲澳洲。恭喜位元组实现全球性贸易。（不会没人知道张一鸣精美吧？不会吧？）

更新，流弊，位元组跪著磕头，微软不要了。哈哈哈哈哈我看看还有什么人来给我说，虽然人家气节没了，社会责任感没了。但是，人家为了钱，没办法呀。蟹蟹，有被孝到。

丢人。第一次有狠的咬牙切齿的感觉。

有十分勇气和腾讯内斗，无一分气力站著做人。

不知道说谅解的，大势所趋的可有一分民族气节。如果是以往时刻，我觉得位元组做法没问题，可现在是什么时候？企业不是只有钱好吗？你位元组站在这个历史风口，要做的的已经不是简单的赚钱了。

如果这次甚至核心演算法都卖掉了，我国打开国门走向世界的第一步舆论战，因为位元组，输了。

位元组洗不白，李鸿章也洗不白，如果我死了，我到死也唾弃这种软骨头。

「今日割五城，明日割十城，然后得一夕安寝。起视四境，而秦兵又至矣。然则诸侯之地有限，暴秦之欲无厌，奉之弥繁，侵之愈急……

……以地事秦，犹抱薪救火，薪不尽，火不灭。」???

张一鸣牛逼，搞出了个连美国总统都为了其利益而不得不选择鼓动全民去抵制的应用。这绝对是中国互联网产业历史上的里程碑事件之一。

先看看CB Insights在其专题《TikTok的拥有者是如何变成世界上最赚钱的独角兽》一文中对于该应用的评价：

…As of May 2020, the viral video app has been downloaded approximately 2B times.
The onset of the global coronavirus pandemic and the associated lockdowns have further accelerated TikTok』s trajectory. In Q1』20 alone, TikTok accumulated 315M new downloads worldwide — a record-breaking quarter for an individual app, according to Sensor Tower.

我不确定抖音的下载量是否被纳入到了TikTok旗下，但这个数字已经很夸张了：截止到2020年5月，TikTok全球下载量已经超过了20亿次…想一想地球上一共才有多少人？

另一方面，机构对于TikTok的三大特质，或者说是位元组跳动所推出的应用的共性也给予了一定的归纳和总结：

A young and highly engaged user base. Like Facebook before it, ByteDance is leveraging an audience of actively engaged young people to facilitate its growth. In the US, 60% of TikTok users reportedly fall between the ages of 16 and 24. Worldwide, two-thirds are under the age of 30.
Products engineered for virality. With TikTok, ByteDance appears to have tapped into something powerful in the way that users currently want to engage with content. The top 50 content creators on TikTok have more followers than the populations of Mexico, Canada, the UK, and Australia combined.Personalization and recommendation algorithms. One way to think of ByteDance is not so much as a creator of content platforms, but as an artificial intelligence laboratory that specializes in developing algorithms that can match users with content, from video and music to news and e-commerce.

划重点：

美国年轻一代沉迷于玩抖音
大家都争相在抖音上投稿，励志成为网红
演算法牛逼

所以马上就能看出特朗普在害怕什么。TikTok真正强大的就在于它的全民参与性和推送机制。

前者正在不断蚕食著年轻一代美国人的业余生活（怎么可以让一个中国APP成为美利坚花朵一代的「精神鸦片」呢？）；

The algorithmic curation and incentives drive a sticky, addictive user experience with engagement metrics that handily outperform those of many other social media platforms. The average session duration on TikTok was 294 seconds as of October 2018, compared with Facebook』s 208 seconds, Instagram』s 144 seconds, and Snapchat』s 80 seconds, according to App Annie.

而后者则更为致命。因为别看这个APP它本身好像没什么技术含量，但就是背后这种精准推送的逻辑，是矽谷一众大佬们所做不出来的，强如G家、F家、T家、A家等，都没办法打保票说我们能整出一个能带来如此吸引力和商业价值的玩意儿。

打不过就加入…哦不对，是打不过就集体抹黑。

TikTok』s algorithmic, engagement-driven business model places it squarely within the 「attention economy,」 which has drawn concerns about the associated psychological effects and the prevalence of user surveillance. For example, Reddit CEO and co-founder Steve Huffman recently said that TikTok』s technology for monitoring users was 「truly terrifying.」

反正这推送机制总能归结到「监视用户隐私」这件事头上（既然我做不出你这么牛逼的推送机制，我就举报你肯定是在背地里作弊、开挂）。

在这件事情，矽谷大佬们倒是和特朗普政府保持了空前团结和一致（完全不会再提及诸如Twitter给特朗普推诿标注Fake的故事了…）。反正干不过，还损害了商业利益，不如就提醒特朗普政府封禁TikTok。等价交换条件便是在今后的大选中会多多支持他。

With TikTok, ByteDance has achieved massive penetration in the US market. But amid mounting US-China trade tensions, growing privacy concerns, and fierce competitors, future inroads in the US are far from a sure thing.
ByteDance is likely to face stiff competition in the US market from tech giants including Google, Amazon, and, perhaps most notably, Facebook.…

News reports indicate that Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has been similarly aggressive in efforts to curb TikTok』s expansion — including publicly raising concerns about the app regarding free speech and censorship.
American politicians have also expressed fears about TikTok』s rise. The US government launched an investigation into the app amid reports that TikTok instructs content moderators to censor politically sensitive videos.…Trade relations between China and the US remain volatile, and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic may further escalate tensions between the 2 countries. If ByteDance is drawn further into the geopolitical rivalry then future US expansion may become much more challenging.