〈分析〉黄金投资下一步？短期熊市胜 动荡直至年底 长线投资人须更有耐心

＜Analysis＞The next step of gold investment? Short-term bear market wins turmoil will up to the end of year for long-term investor have to be more patient

 

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巨亨网编译吕燕智 综合外电　　2013-04-08 21:01:05

专家认为目前熊市情绪主宰著黄金市场。

Experts believe that the current bear market sentiment dominated the gold market.

国际金价近日真是灰头土脸，上周更连跌数日一举缩水近 50美元，熊市拥护者大声喊著「早就警告过你」！而钟情黄金的投资人却疾呼「赶紧逢低进场」！此时究竟该听谁的？

The international price of gold has really depressed, has shrunk nearly $ 50 last week losing streak a few days in one fell swoop, the bear market supporter cried out, "I had warned you"! For those gold investors also cries “bargain-hunting approach!" Exactly who should we listen to?

今年迄今黄金期货价格已挫低近 8%，上周连续 3 个交易日总计下跌 3%，上周四（4日） 6 月期金价格落至每盎司 1552.4 美元，为去年 6 月底以来最低结算价。

So far this year, gold futures prices fell nearly 8%, and total fell of 3% for last three consecutive trading days, on Thursday 4^th of June the gold prices fall to $ 1,552.4 an ounce, it’s the lowest settlement price since the end of June last year.

尽管周五（5日）因美国最新公布的就业数据不佳，且北韩局势带动避险情绪引发金价拉涨，但截至目前仍补不回上周极深的跌幅。

Despite poor latest U.S. employment data on Friday (5 th), and the situation in North Korea led to risk aversion caused the price of gold to pull up, but so far still fill back deep decline last week.

牛市、熊市拥护者彼此叫嚣，金价更在经济复苏与大环境风险间不断拉扯摆荡；分析师提醒，此时熊市情绪占上风，看多黄金的投资人必须更有耐心。

Bull market, bear market supporter are clamoring gold prices continue to pull the swing in the economic recovery and environmental risks; analysts caution that the bear market emotions got the upper hand, the gold investors must be more patient.

投资机构 Price Asset Management 执行董事 Alan Konn 说，看好黄金在货币竞贬时代必然会升值的长期投资人，现在必须决定「短期内愿意承受多少苦」。

The investment institutions Price Asset Management executive director Alan Konn said, optimism for gold in the money race banished era is bound to appreciate the long-term investors must now decide how much they willing to bear in the short-term,.

他进一步表示，这在此时实属不易，因为许多分析师近日已纷纷下调金价预估，而且投资人也不再热衷持有黄金 ETF。

《Gold Newsletter》编辑 Brien Lundin 直言，多数投机者正忙著作空黄金，「目前熊市拥护者占上风」。

He further said that at this time is not easy, because many analysts recently have cut gold price forecast, investors are no longer keen to hold gold ETF.

 

Gold newsletter editor Brien Lundin respect, the majority of speculators is short sale in gold 「bear market supporter got the upper hand」.

尽管来自中、印等国的实体黄金买气仍然强劲，但规模仍远远比不上基金、ETF等「纸张」黄金市场，而今年以来热钱不断从后者流出；统计显示，截至本月 3日，黄金 ETF 持有资产已经从今年初的 4340 万盎司，锐减至 3880 万盎司。
 
贵金属投资平台 The Real Asset 首席分析师 Jan Skoyles 说，此时黄金价格主要由「纸张」市场主导，而许多投资人纷纷转向股市等资产。

Although physical gold to buy gas from China, India and other countries remained strong, but the scale is still far less than the funds, ETFs and other "paper" gold market this year, hot money outflow from the latter; statistics show that, as of June 3the gold ETF holds assets has dropped to 38.8 million ounces from 43.4 million ounces in the beginning of this year,.

 Jan Skoyles, precious metals investment platform The Real Asset principal analyst, said gold prices mainly from "paper" market-oriented, many investors have turned to the stock market and other assets.

面对如此多变的市场，此时黄金投资人该如何因应才能安然驶过风暴？

The face of such a volatile market, gold investors how to response to pass the storm safely?

Skoyles 建议手中持有实体黄金的投资人要「撑住」，若行有余力就可以加码买进。

Midas Letter Opportunity 基金顾问 James West 则认为，此时投资人应避开所有贵金属，直到全球经济基本面有足够力道支撑金价再复航。

位在印度新德里的黄金分析师 Chintan Karnani 建议投资人保持警觉，若本周金价未跌破 1520 美元则适合小幅买进，但若出现 70- 80美元的显著跌幅，即可大动作加码。

Skoyles recommends that hold physical gold in the hands of investors to "shore up", for if there is spare capacity can be buying.

Midas Letter Opportunity Fund Advisor James West believes that investors should avoid all precious metals, sufficient force to support the price of gold and then resume service until the global economic fundamentals.

Gold analyst in New Delhi, India Chintan Karnani, suggest that investors remain vigilant, if the price of gold fell below 1520 U.S. dollars for small buy-in this week, but if a significant decrease of $ 70 - $ 80 could lead the big move overweight.

《Gold Newsletter》的 Lundin 认为，金价近期将从目前底部急拉，但 6、7 月将再次修正并于 7 月底筑出另一个中期底部，之后进入传统旺季再一路涨至年底。

他提醒投资人，一旦金价从目前底部开始向上就该迅速反应，并且留意盛夏可望出现的另一个买点。

The Gold Newsletter Lundin believes that the recent gold price from the bottom of the jerk, but in June and July will once again amended and built another medium-term bottom at the end of July, then enter the traditional peak season and then all the way to the end of rose.

He reminded investors, in respect of the rapid response once the price of gold from the bottom up, and pay attention to the summer is expected to have another buying point.