看到国外的检测水平,忽然想到中国的检测能力怎么样?


截至5月11日,仅广东一省就完成新冠病毒核酸检测量超过1041万份,这个数量已超过英美。根据英国卫生部和美国疾病控制和预防中心网站的数据显示,截至5月12日,英国拭子检测和血清学检测超过200万份,美国新冠病毒检测超过972万份。


我们才查出几个万个确诊的,肯定是检测能力的问题,美国加油!


我就告诉你从来没有官方数据说中国整体的测试能力有多少。

只能从各个新闻中大致推断


一家第三方的就吊打老美;

具体的数据不知道,但是看一下金域公布的;

其他的也差不了多少。


网上有文章说检测了500万,有8万多感染。

美国检测了260多万,有60万感染,美国感染率比中国多太多


先说结论:1月23日至3月31日,中国至少检测172208例。

中国没公布检测量,但是独有疑似,可以从疑似推断。

原始数据来自 疾控新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情分布 分省每天[新增确诊、新增疑似、累计确诊、累计疑似](http://49.4.25.117/JKZX/yq_yyyymmdd.json)。全国数据附文后,JSON格式。

检测疑似患者

  • 新疑:新增疑似
  • 总疑:累计疑似
  • 测疑:检测的疑似

昨总疑+今新疑-今总疑=今测疑

1月20日、22日,测疑竟为负数(-27、-99)!。查询疾控疫情通报、卫健委疫情通报,无21日以前疑似。

  • 19日,新疑0,总疑0(其实是无数据,而非0)
  • 20日,新疑27,总疑54(数据来源何处?)
  • 21日,新疑26,总疑37(新疑与通报不符,应为27)
  • 22日,新疑257,总疑393(中国卫健委通报「除湖北省外」疑似,湖北卫健委未通报疑似,数据来源何处?)

令 20日总疑 为 20日新疑27、21日总疑 为 20日总疑54,数据倒就对了。

扔掉23日以前数据,计算得总测疑为97958(1月23日至3月31日)。

非疑似直接检测

  • 新确:新增确诊
  • 疑确:计入疑似,然后检测为患病的
  • 疑健:计入疑似,然后检测为健康的
  • 直确:不计入疑似,直接检测为患病的

新确=直确+疑确。疑确未知,退一步,新确-测疑:正数为直确下限;负数为疑健、该日无直确,新确全为疑确。正数相加,得总直确下限为74250

不计入疑似,检测为健康的,应该有很多,但未知,也无法推算。

总结:1月23日至3月31日,中国至少检测172208例。


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个人认为,检测总量不代表什么。重要的是新冠死亡人数,关于这个数据,政府是没办法隐瞒和造假的。


怎么可能公布,要公布也要看最后外国,尤其是美国的结果。如果比他们多,那估计会公布,如果比他们少,应该会酌情公布,如果少很多,那就没啥好公布的。反正拿事实说话,就说俺们情况很好,检测量啥的没意义。


就结果论而言,你感觉中国的检测如何呢?

十三亿人确诊人数八万多人。对面美国三亿人确诊人数已经过了十四万了,不是吗?

而且病毒的流氓特性不也是我们检测出来的嘛?


今天的新闻,武汉每日检测数量在5w左右,近期检测了27w人

相关数据我想国家统计局正在合算,毕竟刚发生时都手忙脚乱的,这个应该是可以得到结果的,毕竟每个院方会有记录的。


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