经济学人-Has ?nance been ?xed
经济学人-Has ?nance been ?xed
来自专栏老白说英文
经济学人-180908-Has ?nance been ?xed 财政系统的漏洞，补好了吗？
The system is safer. But the right lessons have not all been learned
系统更安全了。但是我们并没有吸取所有教训。
WHEN historians gaze back at the early 21st century, they will identify two seismic shocks. The ?rst was the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001, the second the global ?nancial crisis, which boiled over ten years ago this month with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. September11th led to wars, Lehman』s bankruptcy to an economic and political reckoning. Just as the ?ghting continues, so the reckoning is far from over.
当历史学家回望21世纪初时，会发现两件令人震惊的事。第一件是2001年9月11号的恐怖袭击，第二件是全球经济危机。后者导致雷曼兄弟在十年前的9月宣告破产。911事件引发了战争，雷曼兄弟破产引发了经济和政治清算。恢复经济的斗争还在继续，郑智清算也远没有结束。
- seismic /sa?zm?k/ 地震的
Lehman failed after losing money on toxic loans and securities linked to America』s property market. Its bankruptcy unleashed chaos. Trade fell in every country on which the World Trade Organisation reports. Credit supplied to the real economy fell, by perhaps $2trn in America alone. To limit their indebtedness, governments resorted to austerity. Having exhausted the scope to cut interest rates, central bankers turned to quantitative easing(creating money to buy bonds).
雷曼兄弟栽跟头，是在损失了跟美国房地产相关的坏账和证券之后。它的破产一度导致混乱。WTO报道的每一个国家，其经济都在下行。仅仅在美国，与实体经济相关的信贷可能高达2000亿美元。为了防止债务进一步扩大，政府不得不缩减开支。千方百计降息，中央银行政策转向量化宽松（目的在于印钱买债券）。
Just as the causes of the ?nancial crisis were many and varied, so were its consequences. It turbocharged today』s populist surge, raising questions about income inequality, job insecurity and globalisation. But it also changed the ?nancial system (see Brie?ng). The question is: did it change it enough?
正如导致经济危机的原因多种多样各不相同，其引发的后果也是一样。它加速了今天平民运动的爆发，引发了收入不平等的质疑，工作不稳定性以及全球化。但与此同时，它也改变了财政系统。问题在于，这种改变是否足够深刻？
To splurge is human
人是浪费之本
One way—the wrong way—to judge progress would be to expect an end to ?nancial crises. Systemic banking meltdowns are a feature of human history. The IMF has counted 124 of them between 1970 and 2007. There is no question that they will occur again, if only because good times breed complacency. Consider that the Trump administration is deregulating ?nance during an economic boom and that the Federal Reserve has not yet raised counter-cyclical capital requirements. Even when prudence prevails, no regulator is a perfect judge of risk.
有种观点认为结束经济危机判断进步的方式，但这种方式是错误的。系统性银行业熔断，是人类历史的特征之一。据世界银行统计，从1970年至2007年，一共
发生了124起熔断。如果因为好时代让人放松警惕，那么毫无疑问，今后还会发生熔断。考虑到特朗普当局在经济繁荣期间违反法律，并且美联储也没有提出反周期的资本需求。即使再小心谨慎，也没有监管人员能全身而退。
- meltdown /meltda?n/ 彻底垮台，熔断
- counter-cyclical 反周期的
- prudence /pru?d(?)ns/ 审慎，方针
A better test is whether the likelihood and size of crises can be reduced. On that, the news is both good and bad.
倒不如预测下经济危机发生的可能性和减小波及范围。从这个角度看，这则新闻就喜忧参半了。
First, the good. Banks must now fund themselves with more equity and less debt. They depend less on trading to make money and on short-term wholesale borrowing to ?nance their activities. Even in Europe, where few banks make large pro?ts, the system as a whole is stronger than it was. Regulators have beefed up their oversight, especially of the largest institutions that are too big to fail. On both sides of the Atlantic banks are subject to regular stress tests and must submit plans for their own orderly demise. Derivatives markets of the type that felled AIG, an insurer, are smaller and safer. Revamped pay policies should prevent a repeat of the injustice of bankers taking public money while pocketing huge pay-packets—in 2009 sta? at the ?ve biggest banks trousered $114bn.
先说好事。银行必须增加资金储备，同时降低债务。银行并不需要依靠贸易和短期大量借贷来为运营提供资金。即使在极少有银行赚取高额利润的欧洲，从整体上看银行系统也比之前更加完善。监管者们已经提高了监管标准，尤其是那些体量巨大，受危机影响微乎其微的几家大机构。大西洋两岸的银行都遵循著压力的考验，同时必须上交各自的破产计划。导致保险公司AIG破产的衍生市场，规模变得更小也更加安全。补充性支付政策不应该给无耻银行家反复盗取资产，中饱私囊的机会--2009年，前五家世界最大银行流失的金额达1140亿。
- trouser/?tra?z?/ 这里不是「裤子」的单数，而是指通过不正当手段获得大量财产
Yet many lessons have gone unlearned. Take, for example, policy makers』 mistakes in the aftermath of the crisis. The state had no choice but to stand behind failing banks, but it took the ill-judged decision to all but abandon insolvent households. Perhaps 9m Americans lost their homes in the recession; unemployment rose by over 8m. While households paid down
debt,consumer spending was ravaged.
但人们并没有因此吸取教训。拿经济危机后决策者们制定的政策举例，国家不能放弃濒临破产的银行，但是采取各种其他政策的同时，并没有放弃无力偿还的房产。大约有900万美国人在经济衰退中卖掉了房产；失业人数超过了800万。当房产债务还请后，消费者购买力已经元气大伤。
- ill-judged /ild??d?d/ 考虑不足的
- insolvent/?nsɑlv?nt/ 无力偿还的，破产的
- recession /r?s???n/ 衰退
- ravage /r?v?d?/ 损坏，破坏
It has taken fully ten years for the countervailing economic stimulus to restore America』s economy to health. Many of Europe』s economies still su?er from weak aggregate demand. Fiscal and monetary policy could have done more, sooner, to bring about recovery. They were held back by mostly misplaced concerns about government debt and in?ation. The fact that this failing is not more widely acknowledged augurs badly for the policy response next time.
美国用补偿性手段来恢复经济，花了整整十年。很多欧洲经济体至今仍受经济增长疲软的影响。其实，如果不是受制于错误的对政府债务和通胀的担忧，财政和货币政策在恢复经济方面能做的更多，成效更快。实际上，经济恢复的难度之大并没有得到广泛认同，而这也清晰地预示著下次经济衰退时，糟糕的经济政策。
- countervailing /ka?nt?vel??/ 补偿的
- countervailing duties 抵销性关税；反补贴税；反倾销税
- stimulus /st?mj?l?s/ 刺激物
- aggregate /?ɡr?ɡ?t/ 聚集的，总计达
- in?ation /?nfle??n/ 通货膨胀
- augur /?g?/ 预示，语言
Stagnation has, inevitably, fed populism. And, by looking for scapegoats and simplistic solutions that punish them, populism has made it harder to confront the real long-term problems that the crisis exposed. Three stand out: housing, o?shore dollar ?nance and the euro.
经济停滞必然导致平民主义。通过寻找替罪羊和简单粗暴的方式--惩罚他们，平民主义使得解决经济危机暴露出的长期问题，难上加难。有三个因素很突出：房产，离岸美元政策以及欧元。
- stagnation /st?ɡ?ne??n/ 停滞
- populism /?pɑpj??l?z?m/ 平民主义
- scapegoat /skepɡot/ 替罪羊
- simplistic /s?mpl?st?k/ 过分单纯化的
To share divine 同甘共苦
The precise shape of the next ?nancial crisis is unclear—otherwise it would surely be avoided. But, in one way or another, it is likely to involve property. Rich-world governments have never properly reconciled a desire to boost home ownership with the need to avoid dangerous booms in household credit, as in the mid-2000s. In America the reluctance to confront this means that the taxpayer underwrites 70% of all new mortgage lending. Everywhere, regulations encourage banks to lend against property rather than make loans to businesses. The risk will be mitigated only when politicians embrace fundamental reforms, such as reducing household borrowing, with risk-sharing mortgages or permanent constraints on loan-to value ratios. In America taxpayers should get out of the rotten business of guaranteeing mortgage debt. Sadly, populists are hardly likely to take on homeowners.
下次经济危机将以何种形式到来目前还无法得知--否则就可以完美躲开。但是，无论哪种形式，一定跟资产有关。发达国家政府从来没有像2000年中期一样，平衡好推动房产发展的欲望与避免房产信贷危机之间的关系。在美国，人们不愿意面对这个问题，因为纳税人承担了所有借贷金额的70%。无论在任何地方，监管者都在鼓励银行贷款给房地产，而不是贷款给实体经济。只有当政客们意识到基础改革，比如降低房产借贷，风险共担抵押或者永久限制贷款估值比时，风险才能降低。美国的纳税人应该摆脱为抵押债务担保的烂摊子。悲哀的是，平民主义者很难接受房东。
- divine /d?va?n/ 神圣的，非凡的
- reconcile /r?k?nsa?l/ 和解，解约
- underwrite /??nd?ra?t/ 给...保险
- mitigate /m?t?ɡet/ 缓和，减轻
- loan-to-value ratio 贷款与估值比
Next, the greenback. The crisis spread across borders because European banks ran out of the dollars they needed to pay back their dollar-denominated borrowing. The Fed acted as lender of last resort to the world, o?ering foreigners $1trn of liquidity. Since then, o?shore dollar debts have roughly doubled. In the next crisis, America』s political system is unlikely to let the Fed act as the backstop to this vast system, even after Donald Trump leaves the White House. Finding ways to make o?shore dollar ?nance safe, such as pooling dollar reserves among emerging-market countries, relies on international cooperation of the type that is fast falling out of fashion.
然后是美元。经济危机能够蔓延到其他国家，是因为欧洲多家银行美元储量见底，而他们还需要长海美元主导的借贷。联邦政府执法人员扮演了避风港湾借款人的角色，像外国人提供了价值1000亿美元的流动资产。自充那时起，离岸美元债务就几乎增长了一倍。下次危机来临时，美国政策不太可能让联邦政府担当后盾，哪怕特朗普卸任也不可能。之前确保离岸美元安全的方案，比如在新兴市场大量储备美元，或者以来国际公司的形式很快就会失去作用。
- greenback 美元
- liquidity /l?kw?d?ti/ 资产流动性
- backstop/b?k,stɑp/ 支撑物（棒球术语）
The rise of nationalism also hinders Europe from solving the euro』s structural problems. The crisis showed how a country』s banks and its government are intertwined: the state struggles to borrow enough to support the banks, which are dragged down by the falling value of government debt. This 「doom loop」 remains mostly intact. Until Europe shares more risks across national borders—whether through ?nancial markets, deposit guarantees or ?scal policy—the future of the single currency will remain in doubt. A chaotic collapse of the euro would make the crisis of 2008 look like a picnic.
爱国主义也阻挡了欧洲解决欧元结构性问题的步伐。危机表明国家银行和政府的关系可以如此紧密：国家竭尽全力给银行提供足够贷款，而银行却因为政府债券贬值而深受拖累。这种「厄运循环」几乎无解。直到欧洲将危机的风险蔓延过边界--无论是通过财政市场，存款担保或者财政政策--单一货币在未来的稳定性将存疑。一旦欧元暴跌，那么2008年的经济危机根本不值一提。
- nationalism /n??n?l?z?m/ 爱国主义
- intertwine/??nt?twa?n/ 纠缠在一起
Policymakers have made the economy safer, but they still have plenty of lessons to learn. And fracturing geopolitics make globalised ?nance even harder to deal with. A decade after Lehman failed, ?nance has a worrying amount to ?x.
决策者们让经济更加稳定，但他们也有很多课要补。破损的地缘政治也使得全球性财政危机更难应对。在雷曼兄弟破产十年后，财政决策者们要做的功课，还有很多。
- fracture /fr?kt??/ 压裂，破裂
【总结】
有些时候，如何运用手里的经济政策取决于受益者是谁。
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