21世紀會是中國的世紀嗎？

羅胖在第一季中國為什麼有前途中提過一個觀點：從地理大發現以來的500多年中，中央國家的變化情況是從人口數為百萬級的西班牙葡萄牙轉為千萬級的英國再轉為人口數為億級的美國和蘇聯，並由此推論下一個中央國家將會是中國。羅胖的理由是：當一個中央國家的創新被其他的國家學會時那麼技術競爭將會變成規模性競爭，誰人多，誰勝利。再說說我的觀點：可是別忘了21世紀出現的一系列機器人產品。下一次的規模性競爭會不會將機器人也納入其中？

Sorry, I dont have Chinese input on this computer.I think the possibility is low, below are reasons

1. Health deterioration: our health (including mental health and physical health) deteriorates due to pollution of food, water, air, and other essential aspects of our survival. The most vulnerable population to pollution is the new generation. Mental health is a hugely underestimated problem from which many Chinese people are suffering. The trend of alienation and breakdown of family (e.g., high divorce rate) due to increasing meritocratic, linear, and mechanic societal values will severely undermine the mental health of younger generation.

2. Economic downturn in inequality: Chinese economy is not as healthy as thought by us. The official Gini index is climbing to reach .50; the unofficial Gini is climbing to .70. No matter how powerful China may look like, its astounding inequality is increasingly depriving ordinary people of hope and motivation to make the country better. In addition, Chinese economy focuses too much on resource-dense industries, which may not be changed quickly due to lack of real marketization (and real creativity and innovation enabled by real marketization).3. The lack of core values of our society: A society is built not only upon ethnic ties but also on general value orientations that help create consensus on the people within. Chinese society is deprived of core value due to superficial westernization, degradation of traditional Chinese cultural values, and materialism. Traditional Chinese culture values sustainability, family-orientedness, diligence, and morality. Such values have been downgraded during cultural revolution. After marketization, materialism has risen quickly to displace our traditional values, creating moral decay and alienation between people.4. The world itself is going downward.

在沒有明顯的技術優勢的條件下，由於政治經濟軍事外交的影響，中國未來發展的前景變數頗大。特別是現在地域對經濟的阻礙減小以後短期內通過資本積累無法達到世界霸權的地位。而通過戰爭的手段達成目的對於中國而言為時尚早，從技術而言目前很難對競爭對手形成代差。所以目前來說處於一個瓶頸期。

21世紀是屬於全世界富人、權貴統治階層的世紀，不分國家。也可以說是屬於人類的世紀，金字塔下層的在他們眼裡不算人。

是的只需要一個改變

羅胖的觀點：「從地理大發現以來的500多年中，中央國家的變化情況是從人口數為百萬級的西班牙葡萄牙轉為千萬級的英國再轉為人口數為億級的美國和蘇聯」

我要報警了，這邏輯簡直了。。。

那是羅胖做得最糟糕的一期節目。與機器賽跑那期才是答案。