早前在另外一個提問下回答了一些想法：

如何看待紅杉等外資擬收購TikTok ? 收購完成後，位元組跳動將無投票權??

www.zhihu.com圖標

那些篤信美國自由市場的人，該醒醒了

請不要再來問我，如果tt不賣被制裁了，誰來養員工。我說簡單點吧，抖音國內盤沒了，自然有快手或者其他軟體趕上，別賺著007的錢，替資本家操心好嗎？說得像被賣了，員工就有錢分了。

先跳個預言家，今天跪美國，明天跪印度，日本，大後日歐洲澳洲。恭喜位元組實現全球性貿易。（不會沒人知道張一鳴精美吧？不會吧？）

更新，流弊，位元組跪著磕頭，微軟不要了。哈哈哈哈哈我看看還有什麼人來給我說，雖然人家氣節沒了，社會責任感沒了。但是，人家為了錢，沒辦法呀。蟹蟹，有被孝到。

丟人。第一次有狠的咬牙切齒的感覺。

有十分勇氣和騰訊內鬥，無一分氣力站著做人。

不知道說諒解的，大勢所趨的可有一分民族氣節。如果是以往時刻，我覺得位元組做法沒問題，可現在是什麼時候？企業不是只有錢好嗎？你位元組站在這個歷史風口，要做的的已經不是簡單的賺錢了。

如果這次甚至核心演算法都賣掉了，我國打開國門走向世界的第一步輿論戰，因為位元組，輸了。

位元組洗不白，李鴻章也洗不白，如果我死了，我到死也唾棄這種軟骨頭。

「今日割五城，明日割十城，然後得一夕安寢。起視四境，而秦兵又至矣。然則諸侯之地有限，暴秦之欲無厭，奉之彌繁，侵之愈急……

……以地事秦，猶抱薪救火，薪不盡，火不滅。」???

張一鳴牛逼，搞出了個連美國總統都為了其利益而不得不選擇鼓動全民去抵制的應用。這絕對是中國互聯網產業歷史上的里程碑事件之一。

先看看CB Insights在其專題《TikTok的擁有者是如何變成世界上最賺錢的獨角獸》一文中對於該應用的評價：

…As of May 2020, the viral video app has been downloaded approximately 2B times.

The onset of the global coronavirus pandemic and the associated lockdowns have further accelerated TikTok』s trajectory. In Q1』20 alone, TikTok accumulated 315M new downloads worldwide — a record-breaking quarter for an individual app, according to Sensor Tower.

我不確定抖音的下載量是否被納入到了TikTok旗下，但這個數字已經很誇張了：截止到2020年5月，TikTok全球下載量已經超過了20億次…想一想地球上一共才有多少人？

另一方面，機構對於TikTok的三大特質，或者說是位元組跳動所推出的應用的共性也給予了一定的歸納和總結：

A young and highly engaged user base. Like Facebook before it, ByteDance is leveraging an audience of actively engaged young people to facilitate its growth. In the US, 60% of TikTok users reportedly fall between the ages of 16 and 24. Worldwide, two-thirds are under the age of 30.

Products engineered for virality. With TikTok, ByteDance appears to have tapped into something powerful in the way that users currently want to engage with content. The top 50 content creators on TikTok have more followers than the populations of Mexico, Canada, the UK, and Australia combined.Personalization and recommendation algorithms. One way to think of ByteDance is not so much as a creator of content platforms, but as an artificial intelligence laboratory that specializes in developing algorithms that can match users with content, from video and music to news and e-commerce.

劃重點：

  • 美國年輕一代沉迷於玩抖音
  • 大家都爭相在抖音上投稿，勵志成為網紅
  • 演算法牛逼

所以馬上就能看出特朗普在害怕什麼。TikTok真正強大的就在於它的全民參與性和推送機制。

前者正在不斷蠶食著年輕一代美國人的業餘生活（怎麼可以讓一個中國APP成為美利堅花朵一代的「精神鴉片」呢？）；

The algorithmic curation and incentives drive a sticky, addictive user experience with engagement metrics that handily outperform those of many other social media platforms. The average session duration on TikTok was 294 seconds as of October 2018, compared with Facebook』s 208 seconds, Instagram』s 144 seconds, and Snapchat』s 80 seconds, according to App Annie.

而後者則更為致命。因為別看這個APP它本身好像沒什麼技術含量，但就是背後這種精準推送的邏輯，是矽谷一眾大佬們所做不出來的，強如G家、F家、T家、A家等，都沒辦法打保票說我們能整出一個能帶來如此吸引力和商業價值的玩意兒。

打不過就加入…哦不對，是打不過就集體抹黑。

TikTok』s algorithmic, engagement-driven business model places it squarely within the 「attention economy,」 which has drawn concerns about the associated psychological effects and the prevalence of user surveillance. For example, Reddit CEO and co-founder Steve Huffman recently said that TikTok』s technology for monitoring users was 「truly terrifying.」

反正這推送機制總能歸結到「監視用戶隱私」這件事頭上（既然我做不出你這麼牛逼的推送機制，我就舉報你肯定是在背地裡作弊、開掛）。

在這件事情，矽谷大佬們倒是和特朗普政府保持了空前團結和一致（完全不會再提及諸如Twitter給特朗普推諉標註Fake的故事了…）。反正干不過，還損害了商業利益，不如就提醒特朗普政府封禁TikTok。等價交換條件便是在今後的大選中會多多支持他。

With TikTok, ByteDance has achieved massive penetration in the US market. But amid mounting US-China trade tensions, growing privacy concerns, and fierce competitors, future inroads in the US are far from a sure thing.

ByteDance is likely to face stiff competition in the US market from tech giants including Google, Amazon, and, perhaps most notably, Facebook.…

News reports indicate that Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has been similarly aggressive in efforts to curb TikTok』s expansion — including publicly raising concerns about the app regarding free speech and censorship.

American politicians have also expressed fears about TikTok』s rise. The US government launched an investigation into the app amid reports that TikTok instructs content moderators to censor politically sensitive videos.…Trade relations between China and the US remain volatile, and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic may further escalate tensions between the 2 countries. If ByteDance is drawn further into the geopolitical rivalry then future US expansion may become much more challenging.

多麼完美的合作！雙方利益高度一致，最終促使了這次張老闆不得不採取棄車保帥的戰略，利益最大化的從特朗普眼皮子底下全身而退。

畢竟在商言商，位元組跳動也不是華為這種巨頭技術型企業。先活下去，再想怎麼反擊，才是上策。從這一點來說，我很期待下這局後手怎麼下。

以免有人用谷歌來噁心人，先提一句

位元組和谷歌不同的是：一個是完全是乞求的狀態，表示願意配合一切，以謀求留在市場當中。另一個以不做惡的私法高於國法，踩著你，要求市場。

更有趣的是位元組是第1個在中美兩個最大的互聯網國家都有很強的產品被槍斃掉的公司，估計以後世界的互聯網會更加割裂；不僅僅是中美中印，也有可能是美歐美印。好難哪！以後肯定會越來越難做；要是路走通了，肯定會越來越好做。

先看個妹子，釋放一下壓力；估摸11月不管頂誰上台，壓力都會越來越大。得調整好心態，應對後面的壓力。

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