原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：ZJfei 轉載請註明出處論壇地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-474793-1-1.htmlForget Nuclear Weapons: NorthKorea Has Lots of Ways to Make Its Military More Deadly除了核武器，朝鮮還有眾多方式可使其軍事實力更有威懾力來源網站：國家利益原文時間：2018-04-29 07:34:50

On April 20, North Korea held the Third PlenaryMeeting of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers" Party of Korea (WPK).The North Korean state media declared the 「great victory」 for the 「WPK"s line of simultaneouslypushing forward the economic construction and the building of a nuclear force.」 After flattering the achievements of the policy, North Koreastated that it will suspend nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile(ICBM) tests, while also affirming to no first use, and no transfer of nuclearweapons technologies.4月20日，朝鮮舉行了朝鮮勞動黨（WPK）第七屆中央委員會第三次全體會議。朝鮮官方媒體宣佈「朝鮮勞動黨同時推進經濟建設和核力量建設的路線方針」獲得「重大勝利」。奉行這項政策取得成就之後，朝鮮表示將暫停核試驗和洲際彈道導彈（ICBM）測試，同時也表明只要不受到核威脅或核挑釁，朝鮮將絕不使用核武器，在任何情況下都不會轉移核武器和核技術。While North Korea"s so-called moratorium could beinterpreted as its gesture to not revive tensions, it falls far short of thecomplete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of its weapons ofmass destruction (WMD) program. Rather, the announcement was an affirmation ofwhat North Korea has stated in the last several months in its dialogues withSouth Korea, but more importantly, was essentially North Korea"s unilateraldeclaration as a 「responsible nuclear weapons state」 and its preemptive answer to the demands for denuclearization.Any demands outside of North Korea"s recent announcement will either bereciprocated with a flat refusal, or at best, tough negotiations wherePyongyang will make some high-end counterdemands.雖然，朝鮮所謂的暫停可以被解釋為朝鮮不想重演緊張局勢的姿態，但還遠沒有達到其大規模殺傷性武器（WMD）計劃的完整性、可檢驗性和不可逆轉的拆卸（CVID）。更確切地說，這一聲明是對朝鮮在過去幾個月中與韓國對話所作的肯定，但更重要的是，它本質上是朝鮮作為「負責任的核武器國家」的單方面聲明，並對無核化需求先發制人的回答。朝鮮近期宣佈的任何要求都將要麼是斷然拒絕，或至多是對於平壤將做出一些高階的反要求的艱難談判。From the military capability viewpoint, the moratoriumreflects North Korea"s belief that further tests are no longer needed (at leastfor the time being) to prove the capabilities of nuclear weapons and ICBMdeveloped to date. Indeed, there is credence to this claim. While technologicalissues concerning accuracy and survivability of warheads still remain, NorthKorea has demonstrated its ability to fire a missile that can technically reachmainland United States, as well as developing nuclear weapons withsignificantly large yield.從軍事能力的觀點來看，暫停反映了朝鮮的信念，即不再需要進一步的測試（至少暫時如此）來證明核武器和洲際彈道導彈發展至今的能力。事實上，這種說法是可信的，雖然有關彈頭的準確性和存活性的技術問題仍然存在，但朝鮮已經證明瞭它具有在技術上能夠發射一枚導彈達到美國大陸的能力，同時也能以顯著的大產量發展核武器。Pyongyang"s recent announcement also pledged to focusmore on 「powerful socialist economy andmarkedly improving the standard of people"s living」 and 「science and education」 to make up for the other half of the byungjin policy. Yet suchstatements were heard in the past, particularly in 1970 when Kim Il-sung admittedthat the excessive military spending in the 1960s had constrained thedevelopment of the civilian economy and pledged to focus more on improving thestandard of living. Of course, this was nothing but political rhetoric. NorthKorea continued to devote significant resources to the military while theeconomy tumbled into failure. Thus, while Kim Jong-un has pushed forward withinfrastructural developments- and has even embraced some market activities- themilitary will continue to have central presence in the state economy.平壤最近的公告還承諾將更多地關注「強大的社會主義經濟和顯著提高人民生活水平」和「科教」，以彌補並進政策的另一半。然而，這樣的聲明過去也曾聽到，尤其是在1970年，金日成承認，20世紀60年代過度的軍費開支限制了民用經濟的發展，並承諾更多地關注提高生活水平。當然，這不過是政治修辭，朝鮮繼續向軍隊投入大量資源，而經濟陷入失敗。因此，雖然金正恩已在推動基礎設施的發展，甚至還接受了一些市場活動，軍隊將繼續在國家經濟中處於中心地位。But the greater uncertainties rest in what was notmentioned in the recent announcement. In particular, the moratorium is ablessing for North Korea because it allows Pyongyang to spend more on theKorean People"s Army (KPA). In this context, at least four areas warrantattention.但更大的不確定性仍然存在於最近宣佈的內容中沒提及的地方。特別是，暫停是對朝鮮的祝福，因為它允許平壤在朝鮮人民軍（KPA）上花費更多。在此背景下，至少有四個領域值得關注。First, the moratorium on tests would allow North Koreato focus more on building the stockpile of proven WMD technologies. Pyongyangannounced the closure of the Punggye-ri nuclear testing facility but made nomentions to the production of fissile material, nor ICBM. Hence North Korea mayhonor its moratorium on tests for the time being, while its WMD stockpilegrows.首先，暫停測試將使朝鮮更加關注建立已證實的大規模殺傷性武器技術的儲備。平壤宣佈關閉豐溪裏核試驗設施，但沒有提及生產裂變材料，也沒有提及洲際彈道導彈。因此，朝鮮可能會尊重暫時停止測試，而其大規模殺傷性武器儲備仍將增長。Second, Pyongyang"s announcement made no references toanti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM), submarine-launched ballistic missiles(SLBM) or short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM). Moreover, the recent statementmade no mention of engine, missile ejection (for SLBM) or reentry vehiclenosecone tests. Givenn that North Korea is still in the early stages of thelearning curve with its ASBM and SLBM, the moratorium would allow Pyongyangfocus on developing its ASBM, SLBM, and SRBM capabilities-that pose a greatthreat to South Korean, Japanese and U.S. forces in the area.第二，平壤的聲明沒有提及反艦彈道導彈（ASBM）、潛射彈道導彈（SLBM）或短程彈道導彈（SRBM）。此外，最近的聲明沒有提及發動機、導彈彈射（用於SLBM中）或再入飛行器測試。鑒於朝鮮仍處於反艦彈道導彈和潛射彈道導彈的學習曲線早期階段，暫停將允許平壤專註於開發反艦彈道導彈、潛射彈道導彈和短程彈道導彈的能力——這對韓國、日本和美國在這一地區的軍隊構成了極大的威脅。Third, strengthening the conventional capabilitieswould be high on the KPA"s agenda to better integrate the WMD capabilities intothe its overall readiness while enhancing anti-access and area-denialcapabilities. Indeed, North Korea"s air and naval capabilities are dated andweak, but the construction of surface-effect ships, corvettes, electronicwarfare systems antiship and antiaircraft missiles have yielded results inrecent years. Despite the resource and technological constraints in acquiringhigh-end systems, North Korea has always pursued to enhance the KPA"shybrid-warfare capabilities through the utility of various existing andindigenously upgraded platforms. Thus, one can expect Kim Jong-un pay greaterattention to the conventional capabilities in the coming years to 「complete」 KPA"s force structuralreadiness.第三，加強常規力量將成為朝鮮人民軍的議程，以更好地將大規模殺傷性武器能力納入其總體準備狀態，同時增強反介入和區域封鎖能力。事實上，朝鮮的空軍力量和海軍力量是過時且薄弱的，但水面艦艇、護衛艦、電子戰系統反艦導彈和防空導彈的建造近年來取得了成果。儘管在獲取高端系統的資源和技術方面存在約束，但朝鮮通過各種現有的和本土化升級平臺的使用，一直追求提高朝鮮人民軍的混合戰爭能力。因此，可以期待未來幾年裡金正恩更加關注傳統力量，以「完成」朝鮮人民軍的力量結構準備。Fourth, North Korea will also try to address theproblems in the KPA"s operational readiness. Despite the hardware developments,the KPA in recent decades has suffered critical problems in logistics andsupplies, maintenance, training, as well as welfare of personnel. Such problemsnot only corrode the KPA"s readiness for large-scale operations, but alsothreaten the integrity of the military—that would be critical for theleadership"s survival. Although full remedies are few and far between,Pyongyang will nevertheless attempt to do what it can to attain maximum levelof operational readiness and integrity of the KPA.第四，朝鮮也將努力解決朝鮮人民軍的戰備準備問題。儘管硬體發展，但是近幾十年來朝鮮人民軍在物流和供應、維護、培訓以及人員福利方面都遭遇了嚴重的問題。這樣的問題不僅腐蝕了朝鮮人民軍對大規模作戰的準備，而且威脅到軍隊的完整性，這對領導層的生存至關重要。儘管補救措施很少，但平壤仍將關於達到最大程度的行動準備和朝鮮人民軍的完整性方面盡其所能。For North Korea, the military is the only sector thatcan function as an effective leverage against the United States and its allieswhile keeping the regime intact. Since the 1960s, North Korea has built themilitary under the auspices of the 「line of self-reliant defense」 that aims to establish a cadre-based military, modernize theentire KPA, establish a cadre-based military and nationwide fortification. Thedoctrine aims to strengthen the readiness of the KPA while enhancing theleadership"s control over the military. Even for WMD, North Korea has beenworking on the development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons since the1960s, and even built a command within the KPA known as the Strategic Force.Given that North Korea has only started to genuinely reap the benefits of itsmilitary capabilities, it would no sense for Pyongyang to unwind the developmentsto date.對於朝鮮來說，軍隊是唯一能夠有效對抗美國及其盟友同時保持政權完整的部門。20世紀60年代以來，朝鮮在「自力更生防禦路線」的支持下建立了軍隊，旨在建立一支以幹部為基礎的軍隊，使整個朝鮮人民軍現代化，建立一個以幹部為基礎的軍事和全國性的防禦工事。這一原則旨在加強朝鮮人民軍的準備，同時加強領導對軍隊的控制。即使是大規模殺傷性武器，自20世紀60年代以來，朝鮮一直致力於發展彈道導彈和核武器，甚至在被稱為戰略力量的朝鮮人民軍內建立了一個司令部。考慮到朝鮮才開始真正獲得其軍事能力的好處，平壤沒有必要放鬆目前的發展。Indeed, North Korea has expressed its willingness todiscuss denuclearization, on the condition their security is guaranteed. Butfor North Korea, this means the whole shebang—peace treaty, decoupling of theU.S.—South Korean (and even the U.S.-Japanese) alliance,withdrawal of American forces from Korea and Japan, and U.S. disarmament.Naturally, such an arrangement is only advantageous to North Korea, whileexposing South Korea and Japan to greater uncertainties.事實上，朝鮮已經表示願意在保證安全的前提下討論無核化問題。但對朝鮮來說，這意味著整個事情——和平條約，美國撤離——韓國（甚至美日）聯盟，美軍撤出韓國和日本，以及美國裁軍。當然，這樣的安排只對朝鮮有利，同時暴露出對韓國和日本更大的不確定性。Without doubt, the recent announcement by the NorthKorean leadership is a step forward. But North Korea"s guns are still facing inthe same direction. As long as the regime stays in power, they will pursue waysto enhance their military readiness to achieve their strategic ends. Againstthis backdrop, it is essential for the United States, South Korea and Japan tosharpen their deterrence measures to demonstrate to North Korea that anybellicose action will be met with the harshest consequences. At the same time,it is critical to note that while the 「military option」 has its place, preemptive or preventative strikes on NorthKorea must not be viewed as an easy or the most plausible option. This is notonly because South Korea and Japan will bear the brunt of North Korea"sretaliatory measures, but also because of the challenges in effectivelyincapacitating Pyongyang.毫無疑問，朝鮮領導層的最近宣佈向前邁進了一步，但朝鮮的槍支仍朝著同樣的方向。只要政權繼續掌權，他們就會尋求提高軍事準備以實現其戰略目標的途徑。在此背景下，美國、韓國和日本必須加強其威懾措施，以向朝鮮表明任何好戰行動都會遭遇最嚴重的後果。同時，值得注意的是，雖然「軍事選擇」有其地位，但對朝鮮的先發制人或預防性打擊不應被視為一個簡單或似是而非的選擇。這不僅是因為韓國和日本將承受朝鮮的報復措施並首當其衝，而且還因為它是有效削弱平壤的挑戰。We therefore face more questions than answers,particularly when one considers North Korea"s style of diplomacy. Goingforward, it is essential to formulate and execute viable, well-coordinatedmultilateral strategies between the United States, South Korea and Japan. Theinter-Korean and U.S.-North Korean summits will serve as the critical firststeps, but we must be prepared for the long-haul to ensure sustainable peaceand stability on the Korean Peninsula.因此，我們面臨的問題多於答案，尤其是考慮到朝鮮的外交風格時。今後，必須制定和執行美國、韓國和日本之間可行、協調良好的多邊戰略。朝韓和美朝峯會將是至關重要的第一步，但我們必須做好長期準備，以確保朝鮮半島的和平與穩定。Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi is a visiting professor in thedepartment of global studies at the College of Economics and InternationalTrade, Pusan National University, and an Adjunct Fellow at the Pacific Forum.Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi是釜山國立大學經濟與國際貿易學院全球研究系的客座教授，也是太平洋論壇的兼職研究員。
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