〈分析〉黃金投資下一步？短期熊市勝 動盪直至年底 長線投資人須更有耐心

＜Analysis＞The next step of gold investment? Short-term bear market wins turmoil will up to the end of year for long-term investor have to be more patient

 

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鉅亨網編譯呂燕智 綜合外電　　2013-04-08 21:01:05

專家認為目前熊市情緒主宰著黃金市場。

Experts believe that the current bear market sentiment dominated the gold market.

國際金價近日真是灰頭土臉，上周更連跌數日一舉縮水近 50美元，熊市擁護者大聲喊著「早就警告過你」！而鍾情黃金的投資人卻疾呼「趕緊逢低進場」！此時究竟該聽誰的？

The international price of gold has really depressed, has shrunk nearly $ 50 last week losing streak a few days in one fell swoop, the bear market supporter cried out, "I had warned you"! For those gold investors also cries “bargain-hunting approach!" Exactly who should we listen to?

今年迄今黃金期貨價格已挫低近 8%，上周連續 3 個交易日總計下跌 3%，上周四（4日） 6 月期金價格落至每盎司 1552.4 美元，為去年 6 月底以來最低結算價。

So far this year, gold futures prices fell nearly 8%, and total fell of 3% for last three consecutive trading days, on Thursday 4^th of June the gold prices fall to $ 1,552.4 an ounce, it’s the lowest settlement price since the end of June last year.

儘管周五（5日）因美國最新公布的就業數據不佳，且北韓局勢帶動避險情緒引發金價拉漲，但截至目前仍補不回上周極深的跌幅。

Despite poor latest U.S. employment data on Friday (5 th), and the situation in North Korea led to risk aversion caused the price of gold to pull up, but so far still fill back deep decline last week.

牛市、熊市擁護者彼此叫囂，金價更在經濟復甦與大環境風險間不斷拉扯擺盪；分析師提醒，此時熊市情緒佔上風，看多黃金的投資人必須更有耐心。

Bull market, bear market supporter are clamoring gold prices continue to pull the swing in the economic recovery and environmental risks; analysts caution that the bear market emotions got the upper hand, the gold investors must be more patient.

投資機構 Price Asset Management 執行董事 Alan Konn 說，看好黃金在貨幣競貶時代必然會升值的長期投資人，現在必須決定「短期內願意承受多少苦」。

The investment institutions Price Asset Management executive director Alan Konn said, optimism for gold in the money race banished era is bound to appreciate the long-term investors must now decide how much they willing to bear in the short-term,.

他進一步表示，這在此時實屬不易，因為許多分析師近日已紛紛下調金價預估，而且投資人也不再熱衷持有黃金 ETF。

《Gold Newsletter》編輯 Brien Lundin 直言，多數投機者正忙著作空黃金，「目前熊市擁護者佔上風」。

He further said that at this time is not easy, because many analysts recently have cut gold price forecast, investors are no longer keen to hold gold ETF.

 

Gold newsletter editor Brien Lundin respect, the majority of speculators is short sale in gold 「bear market supporter got the upper hand」.

儘管來自中、印等國的實體黃金買氣仍然強勁，但規模仍遠遠比不上基金、ETF等「紙張」黃金市場，而今年以來熱錢不斷從後者流出；統計顯示，截至本月 3日，黃金 ETF 持有資產已經從今年初的 4340 萬盎司，銳減至 3880 萬盎司。
 
貴金屬投資平台 The Real Asset 首席分析師 Jan Skoyles 說，此時黃金價格主要由「紙張」市場主導，而許多投資人紛紛轉向股市等資產。

Although physical gold to buy gas from China, India and other countries remained strong, but the scale is still far less than the funds, ETFs and other "paper" gold market this year, hot money outflow from the latter; statistics show that, as of June 3the gold ETF holds assets has dropped to 38.8 million ounces from 43.4 million ounces in the beginning of this year,.

 Jan Skoyles, precious metals investment platform The Real Asset principal analyst, said gold prices mainly from "paper" market-oriented, many investors have turned to the stock market and other assets.

面對如此多變的市場，此時黃金投資人該如何因應才能安然駛過風暴？

The face of such a volatile market, gold investors how to response to pass the storm safely?

Skoyles 建議手中持有實體黃金的投資人要「撐住」，若行有餘力就可以加碼買進。

Midas Letter Opportunity 基金顧問 James West 則認為，此時投資人應避開所有貴金屬，直到全球經濟基本面有足夠力道支撐金價再復航。

位在印度新德里的黃金分析師 Chintan Karnani 建議投資人保持警覺，若本周金價未跌破 1520 美元則適合小幅買進，但若出現 70- 80美元的顯著跌幅，即可大動作加碼。

Skoyles recommends that hold physical gold in the hands of investors to "shore up", for if there is spare capacity can be buying.

Midas Letter Opportunity Fund Advisor James West believes that investors should avoid all precious metals, sufficient force to support the price of gold and then resume service until the global economic fundamentals.

Gold analyst in New Delhi, India Chintan Karnani, suggest that investors remain vigilant, if the price of gold fell below 1520 U.S. dollars for small buy-in this week, but if a significant decrease of $ 70 - $ 80 could lead the big move overweight.

《Gold Newsletter》的 Lundin 認為，金價近期將從目前底部急拉，但 6、7 月將再次修正並於 7 月底築出另一個中期底部，之後進入傳統旺季再一路漲至年底。

他提醒投資人，一旦金價從目前底部開始向上就該迅速反應，並且留意盛夏可望出現的另一個買點。

The Gold Newsletter Lundin believes that the recent gold price from the bottom of the jerk, but in June and July will once again amended and built another medium-term bottom at the end of July, then enter the traditional peak season and then all the way to the end of rose.

He reminded investors, in respect of the rapid response once the price of gold from the bottom up, and pay attention to the summer is expected to have another buying point.