雙語閱讀｜非洲人口出生率居高不下，經濟發展受拖累

聲音資源載入中...

JOHN MAGUFULI, the president of Tanzania, has strong views about birth control. He does not see the point. In 2016 he announced that state schools would be free, and, as a result, women could throw away their contraceptives. On September 9th this year he told a rally that birth control was a sign of parental laziness. Tanzania must not follow Europe, he went on, where one 「side effect」 of widespread contraception is a shrinking labour force.

坦尚尼亞總統JOHN MAGUFULI強烈反對控制生育。他沒有看到本質。2016年，他宣布公立學校免費，因此，女性可以扔掉計生用品。今年9月9日，他在一個集會上稱，控制生育是父母懶惰的表現。他還表示，坦尚尼亞決不能步歐洲後塵。在歐洲，普遍性避孕的一個「副作用」就是勞動力減少。

There seems little danger of that. Tanzania』s fertility rate is estimated to be 4.9, implying that the average woman will have that many children. Europe』s rate is 1.6. Tanzania is helping drive a continental baby boom. In 1950 sub-Saharan Africa had just 180m people—a third of Europe』s population. By 2050 it will have 2.2bn—three times as many as Europe. If UN forecasts are right, sub-Saharan Africa will have 4bn people in 2100 (see chart 1).

這似乎沒什麼危險。坦尚尼亞的生育率估計為4.9，平均每個婦女生近五個孩子。歐洲的生育率是1.6。坦尚尼亞正在推動非洲大陸的嬰兒潮。1950年，撒哈拉以南非洲只有1.8億人口，占歐洲人口的三分之一。到2050年，這個數字將達到22億——是歐洲人口的三倍。如果聯合國的預測是正確的，到2100年，撒哈拉以南非洲將有40億人口(見圖1)。

That is worrying, although not for the old reasons. In 「An Essay on the Principle of Population」, published in 1798, Thomas Malthus claimed that the human population was bound to increase faster than the supply of food, leading to catastrophe. Although Malthus is still admired by some, the green revolution rubbished his hypothesis. The fear now is not that countries will run out of food but that a surfeit of babies will retard their development.

這是會令人擔憂，但原因與之前的有所不同。托馬斯·馬爾薩斯在1798年發表的《人口論》中稱，人口的增長必然快於糧食的供應，從而導致災難。儘管馬爾薩斯仍然受到一些人的欽佩，但綠色革命否定了他的假設。現在人們擔心的不是國家會耗盡糧食，而是過多嬰兒會阻礙國家發展。

Mr Magufuli is right to suggest that Europe has many old people and could do with more workers to support them. But Tanzania』s many children weigh on its economy, too. Sub-Saharan Africa』s dependency ratio (the population younger than 20 and older than 64 versus the population between those ages) is 129:100, compared with 65:100 in Europe. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have a worse dependency ratio than Europe even in 2050.

Magufuli認為歐洲老年人口眾多，需要更多工人來養護，這沒錯。不過，坦尚尼亞的兒童人口過多也給經濟帶來了壓力。撒哈拉以南非洲地區的撫養比率(20歲以下和64歲以上的人口與兩年齡段之間的人口比率)是129:100，而歐洲是65:100。到2050年，預計撒哈拉以南非洲地區的撫養比率將比歐洲更低。

High fertility can also be seen as a global problem, says Bill Gates, whose foundation (jointly run with his wife, Melinda) will hold a conference next week about the state of the world. Overall, humanity is becoming wealthier. But because birth rates are so high in the poorest parts of the world』s poorest countries, poverty and sickness are that much harder to eradicate. 「Kids are being born exactly in the places」 where it is hardest to get schooling, health and other services to them, he explains.

比爾蓋茨表示，高生育率也可以視為全球問題，他（與妻子梅琳達共同創辦）的基金會將在下周召開一次有關世界狀況的會議。總的來說，人類正變得越來越富裕。由於世界上最貧窮國家的最貧窮地區的出生率太高，貧困和疾病就更難以根除。他解釋道：「孩子們正好出生在那些最難獲得教育、健康和其他服務的地方」。

There is nothing inherently African about large families. Botswana』s fertility rate is 2.6, down from 6.6 in 1960. South Africa』s rate is 2.4. And although the UN has a good record of predicting global population growth, it has got fertility projections badly wrong in individual countries. Sudden baby busts in countries like Brazil, Iran and Thailand caught almost everyone out. Could Africa also spring a surprise?

非洲本身並不存在大家庭觀念。波札那的生育率為2.6，低於1960年的6.6。南非的生育率為2.4。儘管聯合國很好地預測全球人口增長方面，但對單個國家的生育率的預測存在嚴重錯誤。在巴西、伊朗和泰國等國家突然出現的嬰兒蕭條，幾乎難為了所有人。非洲也會是個意外嗎？

The UN』s demographers project that fertility will fall in every single mainland African country over the next few decades. They just expect a much slower pace of change than Asia or Latin America managed when their families were the same size. It took Asia 20 years, from 1972 to 1992, to go from a fertility rate above five to below three. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to complete the same journey in 41 years, ending in 2054. Its fertility rate is not expected to fall below two this century. Because many Africans marry young the generations turn over quickly, leading to fast growth.

聯合國人口統計學家預測，未來幾十年，非洲大陸的每一個國家的生育率都將下降。他們預計，非洲家庭人數要降到與亞洲或拉丁美洲家庭人數一樣的規模，速度會更慢。從1972年到1992年，亞洲花了20年的時間將生育率從5以上降到3以下。預計撒哈拉以南地區將在41年內完成，至2054年。預計本世紀其生育率不會降至2以下。因為許多非洲人早婚，世代更替快，導致人口增長快。

The reason the UN expects change to be slow in future is that it has been slow until now. After stagnating economically in the 1990s, countries like Nigeria and Tanzania grew wealthier in the 2000s. But their fertility rates hardly fell (see chart 2). Nor has urbanisation transformed family life as much as you might expect. West Africa is much more urban than east Africa, but has a higher fertility rate.

聯合國預計未來變化緩慢的一個原因是，到目前為止變化一直緩慢。在20世紀90年代經濟出現停滯不前以來，奈及利亞和坦尚尼亞等國家在2000年代變得更加富裕，而他們的生育率幾乎沒有下降（見圖2）。城市化也沒有像預期的那樣改變家庭生活。西非的城市化程度遠高於東非，但生育率更高。

Three things could drastically change the picture, however. First, more African governments could promote family planning. Ethiopia, Malawi and Rwanda have done so, and their birth rates are dropping faster than average. Perhaps the starkest change is in Kenya. Alex Ezeh of the Centre for Global Development, a think-tank in Washington, remembers showing Kenyan politicians evidence that wealthy people both desired and had small families, whereas the poor wanted large families and ended up with even larger ones. The government invested in clinics and propaganda, to some effect. Household surveys show that 53% of married Kenyan women used effective contraception in 2014, up from 32% in 2003. Kenya』s neighbour, Tanzania, is at least a decade behind.

然而，有三件事可能會徹底改變這種情況。首先，越來越多的非洲政府在推動計劃生育政策。衣索比亞、馬拉維和盧安達三國已在做了，而且它們的出生率下降得快於平均水平。也許最明顯的變化是在肯亞。華盛頓智庫全球發展中心的亞歷克斯·埃澤（Alex Ezeh）記得曾向肯亞的政治家證明富人們都希望並擁有小家庭，而窮人則希望擁有大家庭，最終家庭規模更大。在某種程度上，政府要在診所和宣傳方面有投入。對住戶的調查顯示，2014年肯亞已婚婦女中有53％使用有效避孕措施，高於2003年的32％。與其相比，肯亞的鄰國坦尚尼亞至少落後了十年。

The second cause for optimism is education. Broadly, the more girls go to school in a country, the lower that country』s birth rate. This seems to be more than just a correlation: several studies, in Africa and elsewhere, have found that schooling actually depresses fertility. To attend school—even a lousy school where you barely learn to read—is to gain a little independence and learn about opportunities that your parents had not envisaged for you.

令人樂觀的第二個事是教育。從廣義上講，一個國家的女孩上學越多，出生率就越低。這似乎不僅僅是一種相關性：在非洲和其他地方的一些研究發現，學校教育實際上抑制了生育率。上學，是為了獲得一點獨立，知道父母沒有為你設想的機會——即使是去一個你幾乎不讀書的糟糕的學校。

Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria suggest that Africa』s schools are about to drive a large change. They point out that education spending weakened in some African countries in the 1980s as governments scrambled to cut budget deficits. Girls』 schooling, which had been increasing, flattened. It is probably not a coincidence that African fertility rates fell little in the 2000s, when that thinly educated cohort reached womanhood. But school enrolments have risen since then. If education really makes for smaller families, that will soon be apparent.

奧地利國際應用系統分析研究所的研究人員表示，非洲的學校將會有大變化。他們指出，在20世紀80年代，隨著各國政府爭相削減預算赤字，一些非洲國家的教育支出遭到削弱了。一度持續增長的女孩入學教育趨緩。在2000年代，當少數受過良好教育的人群是女性時，非洲生育率幾乎沒有下降，這可能並非巧合。但自那時起，入學人數有所上升。如果教育確實有利於小家庭的形成，那很快就會顯現出來。

The third profound change would be stability in the Sahel. The semi-arid belt that stretches through Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, northern Nigeria and Sudan is lawless in parts and universally poor. Child death rates are still shockingly high in places. Partly as a result, and also because women』s power in the Sahel is undermined by widespread polygamy, people still desire many children. The most recent household survey of Niger, in 2012, found that the average woman thought nine the ideal number.

第三個重大因素和變化是薩赫勒地區的穩定性。這個橫跨布吉納法索、查德、馬里、尼日、奈及利亞北部和蘇丹的半乾旱地帶基本沒有法律約束，普遍貧窮。兒童死亡率依然高得驚人。人們仍然渴望生很多孩子，這既是薩赫勒地區婦女的權力受到廣泛的一夫多妻制的破壞的原因，也是結果。在2012年最近一次尼日家庭普查發現，女性認為生九個孩子是一個理想數字。

Progress on all three counts depends mostly on African politicians. It falls to them to create more and better schools, provide security for their people and invest in family planning. They, not foreign observers, need to conclude that their countries would be wealthier if they had rather fewer children. Like so much in Africa, almost everything depends on the quality of government. And that, sadly, is hard to decree.

以上三方面的情況能取得地進展主要取決於非洲政治家。他們應承擔起責任，建立數量更多，教學質量更好的學校，為民眾提供安全保障，投入資金用於計劃生育。他們——而非外國觀察者——需要得出結論：如果其國家孩子相對較少，他們的國家會更富裕。像非洲的許多東西一樣，幾乎所有東西都取決於政府的質量。不過，遺憾的是，這很難判決。

編譯：楊淑青

編輯：翻吧君

來源：經濟學人（2018.09.22）

閱讀·經濟學人

美國科技巨頭划出「零存活區」創業企業無處可逃

YouTube 除了廣告，不知道怎麼賺錢

土耳其金融業比經濟表現更強

打官司也能融資並獲利，美國訴訟文化資本化

廢塑料回收利用道路智能可期

印度航空企業「逆市」而下全行業虧損

人民幣國際化影響正在慢慢顯現

薅央行羊毛的「創新銀行」讓美聯儲很尷尬