橋水對沖基金深度翻譯——An In-Depth Look at Deleveraging, (二)
橋水雄文——How the economic machine works 經濟機器是如何運作的(一)
生產力增長
週期本身僅僅是事物必然的,遵照邏輯形成的一系列事件,並最終形成相似的規律。在一個以市場為基準的經濟體裏,信用擴張和收縮驅動著經濟週期,同時他們形成的原因是絕對嚴謹的。每個事件發生的順序並非是既定好的方式,必然重複的,並且發生的時間段也不盡然相同。然而出於邏輯性的因素,它們演變的形式極為類似。例如,如果你知道大富翁遊戲的規則,那麼你就能夠明白信用擴張和收縮的過程,在早期的大富翁遊戲裏,人們有大量的現金和些許的酒店,然而將現金轉化為酒店需要支付費用。然而擁有更多酒店的,總是獲得更多現金,在目睹這樣的現象後,人們總是想要將儘可能多的現金換成固定資產以求讓其他玩家支付現金給他們。隨著遊戲的發展,更多的酒店被購買了,然而這卻創造了現金的需求(由於玩家在他人多酒店駐地上需要支付買路費)與此同時許多玩家早已將現金轉換成了酒店,當他們急需現金時,他們往往折價賣掉所有的固定資產。因此在遊戲的早期,「固定資產為王」,在遊戲的後期,「現金為王」。最優秀的玩家知道如何平衡地配比兩者之間的比重,以及隨著形勢變化,配比的改變。
The Federal Reserve has chosen to define 「money」 in terms of aggregates (i.e., currency plus various forms of credit - M1, M2, etc.), but this is misleading. Virtually all of what they call money is credit (i.e., promises to deliver money) rather than money itself. The total amount of debt in the U.S. is about $50 trillion and the total amount of money (i.e., currency and reserves) in existence is about $3 trillion. So, if we were to use these numbers as a guide, the amount of promises to deliver money (i.e., debt) is roughly 15 times the amount of money there is to deliver.5 The main point is that most people buy things with credit and don』t pay much attention to what they are promising to deliver and where they are going to get it from, so there is much less money than obligations to deliver it.
By contrast, in an economy in which credit is readily available, I can acquire goods and services without giving up any of my own. A bank will lend the money on my pledge to repay, secured by my existing assets and future earnings. For these reasons credit and spending can grow faster than money and income. Since that sounds counterintuitive, let me give an example of how that can work.
http://weixin.qq.com/r/8jr64tfEcYoOrZOB92-g (二維碼自動識別)