一帶一路為什麼能成功
原標題：Chinas Challenges Abroad: Why The Belt & Road Initiative Will Succeed
原文地址：
Forbes Welcome
Concurrently（同時發生的，伴隨的，並發的）, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) seems to include everything that China touches and nothing at all, but this doesn』t mean that the initiative is all smoke and mirrors. It』s really happening — in the meeting rooms and conference halls of governments and state-owned enterprises around the world, on the ground in logistically strategic locations, in the nascent（初期的，初生的） special economic zones of dozens of countries, it』s happening -- regardless if the U.S. Defense Secretary seems to feel that it』s little more than a pompous（擺架子的，自大的） dictate.
大意：
一帶一路看似鏡中花，水中月，什麼都沒涉及，卻又包羅萬象。
佐證：
世界各地政府和國企的辦公室或會議廳召開的會議
戰略性物流通道的開闢
各國經濟特區的開設
Controlling physical infrastructure networks
While not sexy, ports, roads, rail lines and logistics zones make up the circulatory system of the world. They are the arteries（動脈，幹道） that goods and people flow through from one point to another, and laying a claim in this area is the first stage of the BRI.
The Fuxing bullet train leaves Nanjing south railway station in Nanjing in Chinas eastern Jiangsu province on September 21, 2017. (Photo credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images)
Over the past five years, Chinese companies are now running no less than 77 sea terminals in dozens of countries, building high-speed rail corridors across Southeast Asia and potentially even Europe and Russia, funding the construction of highways in Pakistan, bridges in Bangladesh, power plants in too many countries to list here, erecting new cities and/or special economic zones in Sri Lanka, Oman, Myanmar, Malaysia and Abu Dhabi, dug a vast array of oil and gas pipelines stretching across Central Asia, Russia and Southeast Asia, and established a 35-line network of direct freight trains connecting the manufacturing centers of central and western China with cities in Europe.
In developing this infrastructure, China has shown that they can vastly outcompete other companies and governments to get contracts. Their strategy is simple: they overpay. But we have to remember that the economic principles of the BRI are not those that are at play for today, but those of 10, 20, 50 years from now. China is apparently investing in a future world where all roads run through Beijing, and only once thats set up will talks of profit and loss be applicable.
成功因素一：對基礎設施網路的控制權
一方面，消化過剩產能；
另一方面，為將來而投資，逐步建立起以中國（北京）為中心的交通網路。
到那時候，再考慮盈利或者損失的問題。
The development of soft infrastructure
At root, developing physical infrastructure internationally is a way for China to establish and cement the long-term political relationships which are truly the beating heart of the BRI.
The biggest leaps that the BRI has perhaps been taking are in the development of what could be called soft infrastructure which is carried out in the realm of politics: intergovernmental agreements, trade deals, customs pacts and aid deployments.
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a news conference at the end of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation on May 15, 2017 in Beijing. (Photo: Nicolas Asfouri-Pool/Getty Images)
Since the Xi Jinping era began in China, the country has been systematically making trade deals with countries all over the world, with a special emphasis on those along the conceptual routes of the BRI. Officially, China has 19 FTAs in the works, 14 of which have already been implemented.
Xi and company have also been busy at work establishing customs agreements across Eurasia, having signed deals with Taiwan, Finland, a landmark pact with the EU, as well as a prospective future agreement with the UK. Last year, China also signed onto the TIR Convention, which is a 70+ country agreement to speed up customs protocols for the more efficient transport of goods.
In addition to trade pacts and customs agreements, China has jumped with two feet into the foreign aid game. According to an extensive study by the College of William & Marys AidData team:
AidDatas research offers a picture of a rising financial giant that is challenging even the biggest donor nations. China provided $354.4 billion in official funding around the world between 2000 and 2014 -- not far off the amount spent by the United States in the same period, $394.6 billion. In some countries, the two nations looked like competitors, with China sometimes usurping the United States to become the preeminent donor.
While these researchers discovered that Chinas aid practices are probably not as rogue as they are often assumed to be, they did uncover an interesting correlation where countries in Africa who vote in support of China at the UN get rewarded with a big boost in aid.
成功因素二：建立與加強與沿線各國的政治關係（合作）
長久的政治關係才是帶路計劃的核心所在
此外，到處談判，到處撒幣。爭取所有可能的支持。
在某些國家，甚至與美國形成競爭關係。
The money is there
An employee at a currency exchange store in Hong Kong counts Chinese one-hundred yuan banknotes on Jan. 12, 2016. (Photo: Xaume Olleros/Bloomberg)
Earlier this year, China bears had a field day reporting about how the Beijings foreign reserves were falling, with some pointing out that upwards of $1 trillion were lost. But this appears to have been little more than a minor hiccup（打嗝）, as over the past six months in a row Chinas reserves have been on the rise and are now above their customary $3 trillion. Or, we can put it like this: China makes around $40-$60 billion per month from the imbalance between imports and exports alone, and even seemingly extravagant spending on the BRI doesnt yet seem to have much of an impact on Beijings bottom line. Basically, China is funding their continent spanning endeavor with chump change, and the wheels are not coming off of this initiative anytime soon.
成功因素三：充足的資金
來源：外匯儲備+貿易順差
按本文作者的話來說，現在花出去的錢還只是毛毛雨。
Crossing geopolitical divides
Instead of calling heads or tails, China calls both, crossing all geo-political barriers and befriending nations on both sides of established conflict lines. Declaring the "with us or against us" type of foreign policy where governments form political bonds with select blocs of countries which stand in opposition to other countries as 「outdated geopolitical maneuvering,」 China aims to instead 「forge partnerships of dialogue with no confrontation and of friendship rather than alliance,」 according to China』s Storyteller-in-Chief, Xi Jinping. Concurrently, China is building relationships with Israel and Iran, Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia and Ukraine, Pakistan and (ultimately) India, North Korea and the U.S. -- crossing all lines and treading all paths in between.
The advantage of this is clear: more countries on the table to deal with theoretically means more deals, more geo-economic clout（影響力，權力）, and fewer barriers to trade.
成功因素四：跨越地緣障礙
與一切有合作意向的談，畢竟，沒有誰會跟錢過不去。
The power of bilateralism
World leaders at the Belt and Road Forum, at the International Conference Center in Yanqi Lake, north of Beijing, on May 15, 2017. (Photo: DAMIR SAGOLJ/AFP/Getty Images)
The BRI can ultimately be deduced to a series of unconnected but nonetheless related bilateral trade and development deals which China is making either one-on-one or group+1 with countries and political blocs across Asia, Europe, and Africa. There is no overarching structure, no membership protocols, no moralistic browbeatings（威嚇）, no predefined set of standards that BRI participants need to uphold in unison（齊奏，同音）, and deals that are made do not need to be watered down to the lowest common denominator（共同的性質/要素） of an established group. Each country or bloc negotiates on their own terms, and deals can be structured in accordance with its particular parameters（參數，限定要素）. When things go awry（脫離，出岔子）, China can renegotiate with the conflicting party directly rather than having a situation that puts an entire multilateral network at risk.
Basically, China seems to have realized that not all countries are the same, not all government systems function alike, and not all cultures can be blanketed with the same, rigidly defined set of standards and protocols. This strategy also gives China more of a dominant position over its partners, as without a bloc of countries behind them they are in the ring one-on-one with a much stronger, faster, and economically stable opponent.
成功因素五：平等、互惠及一對一或多加一的靈活形式
即使部分關係出現偏差，也不會波及到整體。
求同存異是當年周男神就提出的方針，現在習大大將它用得爐火純青。
Simply put: the BRI is built to actually work.
簡單來說就一句話：人家一帶一路是來干實事的。
總體而言，中國在下一盤很大的棋。
真正理解了一帶一路的意圖，就會明白國家管理層的格局之大。
也才能真正體會到所謂地球村的含義。
高三忙，大概概括了下主要意思。各位將就看看。
有興趣的朋友可以仔細體會除標題外被我加黑顯示的句子或辭彙。
歡迎與我探討。
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