本文首發於智堡公眾號：zhi666bao。

作者：Mikko

精要

  1. 政策利率已經接近中性水平的下沿，表態加息空間不大
  2. 強調政策基於經濟前景（數據），尤其是就業及通脹
  3. 明確提及在下半年結束縮表的可能性。
  4. 提及將MBS的償付本金再投資到美國國債當中（資產結構變化）
  5. 有與會者建議聯儲提供利率上限便利工具。

有關加息以及聯邦基金利率的合意水平

Participants noted that maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate for a time posed few risks at this point. The current level of the federal funds rate was at the lower end of the range of estimates of the neutral policy rate. Moreover, in?ation pressures were muted, and asset valuations were less stretched than they had been a few months earlier. Many participants suggested that it was not yet clear what adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate later this year; several of these participants argued that rate increases might prove necessary only if in?ation outcomes were higher than in their baseline outlook. Several other participants indicated that, if the economy evolved as they expected, they would view it as appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate later this year.

與會者指出，暫時維持聯邦基金利率的當前目標區間帶來的風險有限。目前的聯邦基金利率水平處於中性政策利率估算範圍的下沿水平。此外，通脹壓力不大，資產估值也不像幾個月前那麼高。許多與會者表示，目前尚不清楚在今年晚些時候對聯邦基金利率目標範圍進行調整是否適當；其中幾位與會者認為，只有在通脹高於基線展望的情況下，加息才算是必要的。其他幾位與會者表示，如果經濟按預期發展，他們認為今年晚些時候提高聯邦基金利率的目標區間是適當的。

有關框架變化與資產負債表政策

The sta? noted that the Committee had previously indicated that, in the longer run, it intends to operate with no more securities holdings than necessary to implement monetary policy e?ciently and e?ectively. In considering the e?ectiveness of the operating regime, the sta? observed that over recent years, the Federal Reserve had been able to implement monetary policy in an environment with ample reserves by adjusting administered rates--including the rates on required and excess reserve balances and the o?ered rate at the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility--without needing to actively manage the supply of reserves. Over this period, the e?ective federal funds rate was generally steady at levels well within the Committees target range despite substantial changes in the level of reserves in the banking system and signi?cant changes in money markets, regulations, and ?nancial institutions business models. In addition, other money market rates generally moved closely with the federal funds rate. The current regime was therefore e?ective both in providing control of the policy rate and in ensuring transmission of the policy stance to other rates and broader ?nancial markets.

工作人員指出，委員會此前曾表示，長期來看，在有效且高效實施貨幣政策的必要性以外，委員會不打算增加美聯儲的證券持有量（國債、MBS）。在考慮這一貨幣政策操作機制的有效性時，工作人員指出，最近幾年，美聯儲足以通過調整管制利率——包括IOER利率和ONRRP利率——得以在準備金充裕的環境下有效實施了貨幣政策，而無需積極管理準備金的供應量。在此期間，聯邦基金利率總體上穩定於委員會的目標區間內，儘管銀行體系的準備金水平發生了重大變化，且貨幣市場、監管政策以及金融機構的業務模式也有變化。此外，其他貨幣市場利率通常與聯邦基金利率保持著密切聯動關係。因此，現有的範式既能控制政策利率，又能確保將政策立場傳導至其他利率和更廣泛的金融市場。

The aggregate level of reserves had already declined by $1.2 trillion from a peak level of $2.8 trillion reached in October 2014; the decline stemmed from both reductions in asset holdings and increases in nonreserve liabilities such as Federal Reserve notes in circulation. Some recent survey information and other evidence suggested that reserves might begin to approach an e?cient level later this year. Against this backdrop, the sta? presented options for substantially slowing the decline in reserves by ending the reduction in asset holdings at some point over the latter half of this year and thereafter holding the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time so that the average level of reserves would fall at a very gradual pace re?ecting the trend growth in other Federal Reserve liabilities.

準備金總量已經相比2014年10月的2.8萬億美元的峰值水平下降了1.2萬億美元；減少的原因是美聯儲的資產持有量減少，以及流通中的美元現鈔等非準備金負債項的增長。最近的一些調查信息和其他證據表明，準備金可能會在今年晚些時候開始接近高效（均衡？）水平。在此背景下，工作人員提出了大幅減緩準備金進一步減少的備選方案，即在今年下半年結束聯儲的資產持有量縮減（結束縮表），此後將SOMA投資組合的規模大致保持不變，以使準備金的平均水平以非常漸進的速度下降，從而表明其他美聯儲負債的趨勢性增長。

The sta? also described options for communicating plans both for the operating regime and for the completion of the normalization of the size of the balance sheet. If the Committee reached a decision to continue using its current operating regime, announcing this decision after the current meeting would help reduce uncertainty about both the long-run implementation framework and the likely evolution of the balance sheet. In addition, the Committee could revise its previous communications to make clear that it was ?exible in its approach to normalizing the balance sheet and was prepared to change the details of its balance sheet normalization plans in light of economic and ?nancial developments if necessary to support the FOMCs broader policy goals. The sta? noted that, after the end of asset redemptions, the Desk could reinvest principal payments received from holdings of agency MBS in Treasury securities as directed.

工作人員還描述了用於傳達貨幣政策操作制度和終結資產負債表規模正常化計劃的選項。如果委員會決定繼續使用目前的操作制度，在本次會議之後宣布這項決定將有助於減少關於長期執行框架和資產負債表可能演變的不確定性。此外，委員會可以修訂其先前的論調，以表明它在實現資產負債表正常化的做法上是可行的，並準備根據經濟和必要的額外發展情況改變其資產負債表正常化計劃的細節，以支持FOMC更廣泛的政策目標。工作人員指出，在資產贖回終結後，紐聯儲操作台可以按照指示，重新將從MBS償付收回到的本金投資到美國國債當中。

Participants noted some of the key advantages of the Federal Reserves current operating regime, including good control of the policy rate in a variety of conditions and good transmission to other money market rates and broader ?nancial markets. They observed that a regime that controlled the policy rate through active management of the supply of reserves likely would have disadvantages. In particular, the level and variability of reserve demand and supply were likely to be much larger than in the period before the crisis, and stabilizing the policy rate in this environment would require large and frequent open market operations.

與會者指出了美聯儲當前貨幣政策操作機制的一些主要優勢，包括在各種條件下對政策利率進行良好控制，並向其他貨幣市場利率和更廣泛的金融市場很好地傳導。他們指出，通過積極管理準備金供應來控制政策利率的制度可能具有不利條件。特別是，準備金需求和供應的水平和變化很可能比危機前的時期大得多，穩定這種環境中的政策利率將需要大量和經常地公開市場操作。

Participants judged that, in light of their extensive previous discussions, it was now appropriate to provide the public with more certainty that the Federal Reserve would continue to use its current operating regime.

與會者認為，鑒於他們先前進行的廣泛討論，現在應該向公眾提供更明確的信息，即美聯儲將繼續使用其現行的貨幣政策操作制度。

Participants discussed market commentary that suggested that the process of balance sheet normalization might be in?uencing ?nancial markets. Participants noted that the ongoing reduction in the Federal Reserves asset holdings had proceeded smoothly for more than a year, with no signi?cant e?ects on ?nancial markets. The gradual reduction in securities holdings had been announced well in advance and, as intended, was proceeding largely in the background, with the federal funds rate remaining the Committees primary tool for adjusting the stance of policy. Nonetheless, some investors might have interpreted previous communications as indicating that a very high threshold would have to be met before the Committee would be willing to adjust its balance sheet normalization plans. Participants observed that, although the target range for the federal funds rate was the Committees primary means of adjusting the stance of policy, the balance sheet normalization process should proceed in a way that supports the achievement of the Federal Reserves dual- mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. Consistent with this principle, participants agreed that it was important to be ?exible in managing the process of balance sheet normalization, and that it would be appropriate to adjust the details of balance sheet normalization plans in light of economic and ?nancial developments if necessary to achieve the Committees macroeconomic objectives.

與會者討論了一些市場的評論觀點——即認為資產負債表正常化過程可能在影響金融市場。與會者指出，美聯儲資產持有量的持續下降已經持續一年有餘，沒有絲毫跡象顯示縮表對市場帶來了影響。美聯儲提前預告了逐步的證券縮減計劃，而且按部就班地在幕後推進縮表，聯邦基金利率仍然是委員會調整政策立場的主要工具。然而，一些投資者可能認為以前的溝通表明，在委員會願意調整其資產負債表正常化計劃之前，必須達到很高的門檻。與會者指出，雖然聯邦基金利率的目標範圍是委員會調整政策立場的主要手段，但資產負債表正常化進程應以有助於實現美聯儲實現最高就業和穩定價格的雙重任務目標的方式進行。根據這一原則，與會者一致認為，在資產負債表正常化管理過程中聯儲擁有靈活性，並且應當根據經濟和必要的發展，為了實現委員會的宏觀經濟目標，調整資產負債表正常化計劃的細節也是合理的。

Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserves asset holdings later this year. Such an announcement would provide more certainty about the process for completing the normalization of the size of the Federal Reserves balance sheet. A substantial majority expected that when asset redemptions ended, the level of reserves would likely be somewhat larger than necessary for e?cient and e?ective implementation of monetary policy; if so, many suggested that some further very gradual decline in the average level of reserves, re?ecting the trend growth of other liabilities such as Federal Reserve notes in circulation, could be appropriate. In these participants view, this process would allow the Federal Reserve to arrive slowly at an e?cient level of reserves while maintaining good control of short-term interest rates without needing to engage in more frequent open market operations. A few participants judged that there would be little bene?t to allowing reserves to continue to fall after the end of redemptions or that this approach could have costs, such as an undue risk of volatility in short-term interest rates, that would exceed its bene?ts. These participants thought that upon ending asset redemptions, the Federal Reserve should begin adding to its assets to o?set growth in nonreserve liabilities, so as to keep the average level of reserves relatively stable. A couple of participants suggested that a ceiling facility to mitigate temporary unexpected pressures in reserve markets could play a useful role in supporting policy implementation at lower levels of reserves.

幾乎所有與會者都認為，在不久的將來（今年晚些時候）宣布停止減持美聯儲資產的計劃是可取的。這一聲明將為終結美聯儲資產負債表規模正常化進程提供更多確定性。絕大多數人預計，在資產贖回終止後，準備金可能會比貨幣政策有效執行所需的水平大一些；如果確實如此，許多人認為準備金平均水平的進一步逐步下降，包括美元現鈔等其他負債的趨勢增長，可能是合適的。這些與會者認為，這一進程將使美聯儲能夠緩慢地達到一個有效的準備金水平，同時保持對短期利率的良好控制，而不必更頻繁地進行公開市場操作。一些與會者認為，允許準備金在資產贖回結束後繼續下降沒什麼好處，或者這種方法會有代價，比如短期利率波動的不當風險，超過了它可能帶來的好處。這些與會者認為，在結束資產贖回後，美聯儲應該開始增加其資產，將非準備金負債的增長水平設定為資產負債表的擴張目標，以保持準備金平均水平的相對穩定。一些與會者建議，為減輕準備金市場臨時的意外壓應當提供利率上限便利工具（機制），可在支持較低準備金水平的政策執行方面發揮有益的作用。

Participants commented that, in light of the Committees longstanding plan to hold primarily Treasury securities in the long run, it would be appropriate once asset redemptions end to reinvest most, if not all, principal payments received from agency MBS in Treasury securities. Some thought that continuing to reinvest agency MBS principal payments in excess of $20 billion per month in agency MBS, as under the current balance sheet normalization plan, would simplify communications or provide a helpful backstop against scenarios in which large declines in long-term interest rates caused agency MBS prepayment speeds to increase sharply. However, some others judged that retaining the cap on agency MBS redemptions was unnecessary at this stage in the normalization process. These participants noted considerations in support of this view, including that principal payments were unlikely to reach the $20 billion level after 2019, that the cap could slightly slow the return to a portfolio of primarily Treasury securities, or that the Committee would have the ?exibility to adjust the details of its balance sheet normalization plans in light of economic and ?nancial developments. Participants commented that it would be important over time to develop and communicate plans for reinvesting agency MBS principal payments, and they expected to continue their discussion of balance sheet normalization and related issues at upcoming meetings.

與會者評論說，鑒於委員會長期計劃主要持有財政部證券（國債），一旦資產贖回結束後，將大部分（不是全部）從MBS收到的本金償付款再投資於美國國債將是適當的。一些與會者認為，按照目前的資產負債表正常化計劃，繼續將每月超過200億美元的MBS本金再投資於MBS，將簡化溝通，或針對長期利率大幅下降導致機構MBS的提前償付速度大幅提高的情形提供有益的支持。然而，另一些與會者認為，在目前的正常化階段，沒有必要保留對MBS的贖回上限。這些與會者注意到支持這一觀點的各種因素，包括本金支付在2019年後不太可能達到200億美元的水平，上限也因此無法放慢美聯儲回歸主要由國債組成的投資組合的速度，或者委員會相信鑒於經濟和金融方面的發展，委員會就有必要調整其資產負債表正常化計劃的細節。與會者評論說，隨著時間的推移，必須制定和傳達MBS本金再投資的計劃，他們希望在即將舉行的會議上繼續討論資產負債表正常化以及相關問題。

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