看到國外的檢測水平,忽然想到中國的檢測能力怎麼樣?


截至5月11日,僅廣東一省就完成新冠病毒核酸檢測量超過1041萬份,這個數量已超過英美。根據英國衛生部和美國疾病控制和預防中心網站的數據顯示,截至5月12日,英國拭子檢測和血清學檢測超過200萬份,美國新冠病毒檢測超過972萬份。


我們才查出幾個萬個確診的,肯定是檢測能力的問題,美國加油!


我就告訴你從來沒有官方數據說中國整體的測試能力有多少。

只能從各個新聞中大致推斷


一家第三方的就吊打老美;

具體的數據不知道,但是看一下金域公布的;

其他的也差不了多少。


網上有文章說檢測了500萬,有8萬多感染。

美國檢測了260多萬,有60萬感染,美國感染率比中國多太多


先說結論:1月23日至3月31日,中國至少檢測172208例。

中國沒公布檢測量,但是獨有疑似,可以從疑似推斷。

原始數據來自 疾控新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情分布 分省每天[新增確診、新增疑似、累計確診、累計疑似](http://49.4.25.117/JKZX/yq_yyyymmdd.json)。全國數據附文後,JSON格式。

檢測疑似患者

  • 新疑:新增疑似
  • 總疑:累計疑似
  • 測疑:檢測的疑似

昨總疑+今新疑-今總疑=今測疑

1月20日、22日,測疑竟為負數(-27、-99)!。查詢疾控疫情通報、衛健委疫情通報,無21日以前疑似。

  • 19日,新疑0,總疑0(其實是無數據,而非0)
  • 20日,新疑27,總疑54(數據來源何處?)
  • 21日,新疑26,總疑37(新疑與通報不符,應為27)
  • 22日,新疑257,總疑393(中國衛健委通報「除湖北省外」疑似,湖北衛健委未通報疑似,數據來源何處?)

令 20日總疑 為 20日新疑27、21日總疑 為 20日總疑54,數據倒就對了。

扔掉23日以前數據,計算得總測疑為97958(1月23日至3月31日)。

非疑似直接檢測

  • 新確:新增確診
  • 疑確:計入疑似,然後檢測為患病的
  • 疑健:計入疑似,然後檢測為健康的
  • 直確:不計入疑似,直接檢測為患病的

新確=直確+疑確。疑確未知,退一步,新確-測疑:正數為直確下限;負數為疑健、該日無直確,新確全為疑確。正數相加,得總直確下限為74250

不計入疑似,檢測為健康的,應該有很多,但未知,也無法推算。

總結:1月23日至3月31日,中國至少檢測172208例。


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個人認為,檢測總量不代表什麼。重要的是新冠死亡人數,關於這個數據,政府是沒辦法隱瞞和造假的。


怎麼可能公布,要公布也要看最後外國,尤其是美國的結果。如果比他們多,那估計會公布,如果比他們少,應該會酌情公布,如果少很多,那就沒啥好公布的。反正拿事實說話,就說俺們情況很好,檢測量啥的沒意義。


就結果論而言,你感覺中國的檢測如何呢?

十三億人確診人數八萬多人。對面美國三億人確診人數已經過了十四萬了,不是嗎?

而且病毒的流氓特性不也是我們檢測出來的嘛?


今天的新聞,武漢每日檢測數量在5w左右,近期檢測了27w人

相關數據我想國家統計局正在合算,畢竟剛發生時都手忙腳亂的,這個應該是可以得到結果的,畢竟每個院方會有記錄的。


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