能源世界正在發生變化，我們今天推出《BP世界能源展望》2019年中文版，在“漸進轉型”中聚焦世界能源體系變化速度。

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　　《BP世界能源展望》2019年中文版（以下簡稱“《展望》”）對2040年前可能影響全球能源市場狀況的關鍵不確定因素展開了探討。

　　The 2019 Chinese edition of BP’s Energy Outlook, explores the key uncertainties that could impact the shape of global energy markets out to 2040.

　　而這一時期最大的不確定性在於：全球經濟的持續增長和繁榮需要消費更多能源，同時，我們也需要更快地向低碳社會轉型。

　　The greatest uncertainties over this period involve the need for more energy to support continued global economic growth and rising prosperity, together with the need for a more rapid transition to a lower-carbon future.

　　這些情景都強調了一個問題——世界面臨着雙重挑戰。《展望》也探討了其他一系列問題，包括貿易摩擦升級以及一次性塑料製品使用禁令所產生的潛在影響。

　　These scenarios highlight the dual challenge that the world is facing. The Outlook also considers a number of other issues including the possible impact of an escalation in trade disputes and the implications of a significant tightening in the regulation of plastics.

　　《展望》中的大部分內容都是以“漸進轉型”情景爲基礎。

　　Much of the narrative in the Outlook is based on its evolving transition scenario.

　　這種情景和《展望》中考慮的其他情景並不是爲了去預測未來可能發生什麼，而是爲了探索外界判斷和假設可能帶來的影響。

　　This scenario and the others considered in the Outlook are not predictions of what is likely to happen; instead, they explore the possible implications of different judgements and assumptions.

　　“漸進轉型”情景假定政府政策、技術和社會偏好的演進方式和速度與近期類似。在該情景中：

　　In the 'Evolving Transition'scenario, which assumes that government policies, technologies and societal preferences evolve in a manner and speed similar to the recent past:

　　生活水平不斷提高，尤其是在印度、中國和其他亞洲地區生活水平提高的推動下，到2040年，全球能源需求增長約三分之一。

　　Global energy demand increases by around a third by 2040, driven by improvements in living standards, particularly in India, China and across Asia.

　　工業耗能和建築耗能佔整體能源需求增長的75%左右，交通能源需求的增長與過去相比則因機動車效率的提升而明顯放緩。

　　Energy consumed by industry and buildings accounts for around 75% of this increase in overall energy demand, while growth in energy demand from transport slows sharply relative to the past as gains in vehicle efficiency accelerate.

　　電力行業能源消費約佔一次能源增長量的75%。

　　The power sector uses around 75% of the increase in primary energy.

　　85%的能源供給增長來自可再生能源和天然氣。到2040年，可再生能源將成爲全球最大的發電用能源。

　　85% of the growth in energy supply is generated through renewable energy and natural gas, with renewables becoming the largest source of global power generation by 2040.

　　可再生能源是史上最快滲透至全球能源體系的燃料。

　　The pace at which renewable energy penetrates the global energy system is faster than for any fuel in history.

　　在《展望》期的前半段時間內，石油需求有所增長，隨後逐漸趨於平穩；而全球煤炭消耗量則大體持平。

　　Demand for oil grows in the first half of the Outlook period before gradually plateauing, while global coal consumption remains broadly flat.

　　在所有《展望》考慮的情景中，爲滿足2040年的石油需求，需要加大對新油田的投資力度。

　　Across all the scenarios considered in the Outlook, significant levels of continued investment in new oil will be required to meet oil demand in 2040.

　　全球碳排放持續增加，這表明需要出臺全面的政策措施來實現碳排放的大幅削減。

　　Global carbon emissions continue to rise, signalling the need for a comprehensive set of policy measures to achieve a substantial reduction in carbon emissions.

　　BP集團首席執行官戴德立表示：“《展望》再次聚焦了世界能源體系的變化速度，以及未來我們該如何面對能源需求增加和碳排放減少的雙重挑戰。可以肯定的是，在面對這些挑戰時，我們必然需要多種形式的能源共同發揮作用。

　　“The Outlook again brings into sharp focus just how fast the world’s energy systems are changing, and how the dual challenge of more energy with fewer emissions is framing the future. Meeting this challenge will undoubtedly require many forms of energy to play a role.” said Bob Dudley, group chief executive.

　　BP集團首席經濟學家戴思攀提出：“預測能源轉型的演變方向將是一項艱鉅而複雜的任務。在BP，我們清楚我們期望的結果，但是，我們並不知道轉型的確切路徑。我們的戰略爲我們提供了正面應對這一不確定性所需的靈活性和便捷性。”

　　“Predicting how this energy transition will evolve is a vast, complex challenge. In BP, we know the outcome that’s needed, but we don’t know the exact path the transition will take. Our strategy offers us the flexibility and agility we need to meet this uncertainty head on.” agrees Spencer Dale, group chief economist.

　　能源世界正在發生變化。可再生能源和天然氣貢獻了一次能源增長的絕大部分。在“漸進轉型”情景中，85%的新增能源消費都來自低碳能源。

　　The world of energy is changing. Renewables and natural gas together account for the great majority of the growth in primary energy. In our evolving transition scenario, 85% of new energy is lower carbon.

　　除了“漸進轉型”情景外，《展望》還考慮了若干其他情景，對幾個重要情景進行了概述。

　　Beyond the evolving transition scenario, the Outlook considers a number of additional scenarios. Some of the key ones are outlined below.

　　更多能源

　　More energy

　　我們需要更多的能源來支持增長和將近數十億低收入人羣轉變爲中等收入。“更多能源”情景將對這一點進行探討。

　　More energy will be needed to support growth and enable billions of people to move from low to middle incomes; this is explored in the more energy scenario.

　　人類進步和能源消耗之間存在密切聯繫。聯合國人類發展指數指出，在100吉焦水平以下，人均能源消費與人類發展有很強的相關性。

　　There is a strong link between human progress and energy consumption; the UN Human Development Index suggests that increases in energy consumption of up to around 100 gigajoules (GJ) per head are associated with substantial increases in human development and well-being.

　　目前，全世界約80%的人口居住在人均能源消耗低於100吉焦的國家/地區。

　　Today, around 80% of the world’s population live in countries where average energy consumption is less than 100 GJ per head.

　　爲了在2040年之前將這一比例降至三分之一，世界能源需求將比今天多出約65%左右，比“漸進轉型”情景所需能源多25%。

　　In order to reduce that number to one-third of the population by 2040, the world would require around 65% more energy than today, or 25% more energy than needed in the evolving transition scenario.

　　在“漸進轉型”情景中，所需能源的增長量大致相當於2017年中國的整體能源消費量。

　　The increase in energy required over and above the evolving transition scenario is roughly the equivalent of China’s entire energy consumption in 2017.

　　除更多能源情景外，《展望》還強調採取進一步措施減少碳排放的需求。這是世界面臨的雙重挑戰，即在提供更多能源的同時，減少碳排放。

　　Together with the more energy scenario, the Outlook also highlights the need for further action to reduce carbon emissions. This is the dual challenge for the world – to provide more energy with fewer emissions.

　　快速轉型

　　Rapid transition

　　“快速轉型”情景將《展望》內的所有分析組合在一起，它將關於工業、建築、交通和電力低碳情景的政策措施組合在一個情景中。

　　The rapid transition scenario is the combination of analyses throughout the Outlook which brings together in a single scenario the policy measures in separate lower carbon scenarios for industry and buildings, transport and power.

　　“快速轉型”情景的結論是，到2040年，碳排放會比目前減少45%左右——這大致和《巴黎協定》氣候目標外部預測樣本的中等水平相符合。

　　Doing so results in around a 45% decline in carbon emissions by 2040 relative to current levels – which is broadly in the middle of a sample of external projections with claim to be consistent with meeting the Paris climate goals.

　　碳排放減少反映了一系列的變化：能源效率的提高、向低碳能源結構的轉型、碳捕捉利用與儲存技術的大幅運用，以及對電力行業尤爲重要的——碳價格的大幅上漲。

　　This fall reflects a combination of:gains in energy efficiency; a switch to lower-carbon fuels; material use of CCUS; and, of particular importance in the power sector, a significant rise in the carbon price.

　　目前，電力行業是能源使用方面最大的碳排放源。因此，世界各國能否繼續尋求減少電力行業排放量的方法至關重要。

　　The power sector is currently the single largest source of carbon emissions from energy use and it is therefore critical that the world continues to seek ways to reduce emissions from this sector.

　　相比之下，2040年前所有情景中交通業的碳排放減少量較少。

　　Reductions in carbon emissions from the transport industry in all scenarios to 2040 is relatively small in comparison.

　　即使是在“快速轉型”情景中，2040年的碳排放水平仍然會居高不下。

　　Even in the rapid transition scenario, a significant level of carbon emissions remain in 2040.

　　爲實現《巴黎協定》氣候目標，需要在本世紀下半葉大大減少剩餘排放量，並以負排放將其抵消。

　　In order to meet the Paris climate goals, in the second half of the century these remaining emissions would need to be greatly reduced and offset with negative emissions.

　　今年的《展望》就討論了在2040年以後，哪些技術和發展趨勢可以在減少排放量方面發揮核心作用。

　　This year’s Outlook considers which technologies and developments may play a central role in this reduction beyond 2040.

　　其中，一個關鍵技術發展可能就是電力行業的幾乎完全脫碳。這一技術發展需要大量使用可再生能源和天然氣，並通過碳捕捉利用與儲存技術技術，同時提高終端用途（包括交通）的電氣化程度。

　　A key development would be a near-complete decarbonization of the power sector – requiring greater use of renewables and CCUS in conjunction with natural gas – together with greater electrification of end-use activities (including transport).

　　對於那些無法實現電氣化的終端用途而言，其他形式的低碳能源和能源載體（可能包括氫和生物能）則至關重要。

　　For those end-uses that cannot be electrified, other forms of low-carbon energy and energy carriers will be crucial, potentially including hydrogen and bioenergy.

　　逆全球化

　　Less globalization

　　國際貿易促進了經濟增長，實現了各國能源多元化。在“全球化程度降低”情景中，《展望》探討了貿易糾紛升級對世界能源體系產生的可能影響。

　　International trade underpins economic growth and allows countries to diversify their source of energy. In the less globalization scenario the Outlook explores the possible impact that escalating trade disputes could have on the global energy system.

　　戴思攀表示，“歷史經驗告訴我們，對能源安全的擔憂會產生持久的疤痕效應。”

　　“The message from history is that concerns about energy security can have persistent, scarring effects,” said Dale.

　　一次性塑料製品禁令

　　Single-use plastics ban

　　據預計，未來20年，塑料製品產量提高推動了工業行業中非燃燒用液體燃料的需求，特別是石化產品原料的使用，這將成爲石油需求增長的最大來源。

　　The single-largest projected source of oil demand growth over the next 20 years is from the non- combusted use of liquid fuels in industry, particularly as a feedstock for petrochemicals, driven by the increasing production of plastics.

　　然而，“漸進轉型”情景顯示，用於非燃燒需求的石油增幅卻比過去有所放緩。據此，我們可以這樣假設，未來20年塑料製品的使用和回收監管法規將會大幅收緊。

　　Growth of non-combusted demand in the evolving transition scenario is, however, slower than in the past, reflecting the assumption that regulations governing the use and recycling of plastics tighten materially over the next 20 years.

　　鑑於一次性塑料製品對環境影響問題的日益嚴重，《展望》還考慮了“一次性塑料製品禁令”情景。該情景假設對塑料製品的監管快速收緊，從2040年開始世界各國都將禁止使用所有一次性塑料製品。

　　Given the heightening environmental concerns regarding single-use plastics, the Outlook also considers a single-use plastics ban scenario, in which the regulation of plastics is tightened even more quickly, culminating in a worldwide ban on the use of all single-use plastics from 2040 onwards.

　　如果不進一步開發替代材料以及不廣泛應用回收再利用系統，一次性塑料製品禁令可能會導致能源需求和碳排放的增加。

　　A ban on single-use plastics could result in an increase in energy demand and carbon emissions without further advances in alternative materials and the widespread use of collection and reuse systems.

　　來源：經濟日報微信公衆號（ID:jjrbwx）

　　策劃、文案：經濟日報外企頭條工作室 陳頤 朱琳